African Rainbow Minerals Limited

JSE:ARI Stock Report

Market Cap: R29.7b

African Rainbow Minerals Valuation

Is ARI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARI (ZAR151.28) is trading below our estimate of fair value (ZAR161.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARI is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARI?

Key metric: As ARI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ARI. This is calculated by dividing ARI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ARI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.4x
EarningsR3.15b
Market CapR29.66b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ARI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.4x
MDI Master Drilling Group
11.3xn/aR2.0b
NPH Northam Platinum Holdings
21.9x31.8%R39.4b
SAP Sappi
47.1x43.0%R29.0b
KIO Kumba Iron Ore
5.2x-9.4%R105.9b
ARI African Rainbow Minerals
9.4x10.8%R29.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the peer average (21.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Metals and Mining Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ARI 9.4xIndustry Avg. 11.3xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.4x
Fair PE Ratio9.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR151.28
R184.80
+22.2%
13.4%R220.00R154.00n/a5
Dec ’25R159.02
R196.80
+23.8%
14.7%R220.00R154.00n/a5
Nov ’25R179.02
R196.80
+9.9%
14.7%R220.00R154.00n/a5
Oct ’25R197.61
R209.80
+6.2%
18.9%R250.00R154.00n/a5
Sep ’25R174.00
R234.40
+34.7%
17.4%R275.00R162.00n/a5
Aug ’25R212.71
R227.00
+6.7%
17.9%R275.00R162.00n/a6
Jul ’25R226.05
R218.67
-3.3%
16.5%R270.00R162.00n/a6
Jun ’25R225.84
R215.17
-4.7%
15.0%R250.00R161.00n/a6
May ’25R196.24
R195.17
-0.5%
14.7%R250.00R161.00n/a6
Apr ’25R164.48
R198.50
+20.7%
9.4%R235.00R181.00n/a6
Mar ’25R170.29
R201.83
+18.5%
9.6%R240.00R181.00n/a6
Feb ’25R185.04
R201.83
+9.1%
9.6%R240.00R181.00n/a6
Jan ’25R200.00
R197.95
-1.0%
12.5%R240.00R160.00n/a6
Dec ’24R185.04
R202.95
+9.7%
16.8%R270.00R160.00R159.026
Nov ’24R154.00
R210.83
+36.9%
17.7%R270.00R160.00R179.026
Oct ’24R170.09
R225.00
+32.3%
13.3%R260.00R180.00R197.615
Sep ’24R178.00
R231.00
+29.8%
11.2%R260.00R200.00R174.005
Aug ’24R199.08
R231.00
+16.0%
11.2%R260.00R200.00R212.715
Jul ’24R199.01
R257.60
+29.4%
7.2%R275.00R225.00R226.055
Jun ’24R210.70
R270.80
+28.5%
5.3%R294.00R250.00R225.845
May ’24R229.70
R270.80
+17.9%
5.3%R294.00R250.00R196.245
Apr ’24R230.66
R289.80
+25.6%
7.6%R330.00R270.00R164.485
Mar ’24R264.33
R297.00
+12.4%
10.8%R340.00R260.00R170.295
Feb ’24R283.90
R285.83
+0.7%
16.0%R340.00R200.00R185.046
Jan ’24R288.00
R287.50
-0.2%
15.3%R330.00R200.00R200.006
Dec ’23R296.28
R284.17
-4.1%
15.8%R330.00R200.00R185.046

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 19:46
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

African Rainbow Minerals Limited is covered by 18 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ayan GhoshAvior Capital Markets
Caroline LearmonthBarclays
Brian MorganBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)