Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited

JSE:HAR Stock Report

Market Cap: R137.0b

Harmony Gold Mining Valuation

Is HAR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
R161.46
Fair Value
38.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: HAR (ZAR223.3) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR161.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HAR is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HAR?

Key metric: As HAR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HAR. This is calculated by dividing HAR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HAR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.1x
EarningsR8.59b
Market CapR137.03b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HAR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HAR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.8x
GFI Gold Fields
25.3x42.4%R308.5b
KIO Kumba Iron Ore
5.5x-8.1%R113.6b
AMS Anglo American Platinum
14.3x7.3%R173.0b
NPH Northam Platinum Holdings
26.1x30.3%R47.6b
HAR Harmony Gold Mining
16.1x30.4%R137.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the peer average (17.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HAR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Metals and Mining Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAR 16.1xIndustry Avg. 11.4xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HAR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HAR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HAR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.1x
Fair PE Ratio21.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HAR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR223.30
R187.50
-16.0%
14.7%R225.00R135.00n/a6
Jan ’26R150.68
R161.50
+7.2%
16.0%R190.00R120.00n/a6
Dec ’25R165.00
R160.67
-2.6%
15.6%R190.00R120.00n/a6
Nov ’25R188.61
R162.71
-13.7%
17.5%R210.00R120.00n/a7
Oct ’25R186.40
R143.50
-23.0%
23.8%R181.00R90.00n/a6
Sep ’25R178.27
R144.00
-19.2%
24.7%R185.00R88.00n/a6
Aug ’25R175.65
R132.43
-24.6%
26.0%R185.00R88.00n/a7
Jul ’25R167.90
R134.00
-20.2%
21.7%R175.00R90.00n/a7
Jun ’25R170.91
R129.00
-24.5%
21.6%R160.00R90.00n/a7
May ’25R164.91
R122.83
-25.5%
25.3%R165.00R90.00n/a6
Apr ’25R158.01
R95.00
-39.9%
21.1%R125.00R60.00n/a6
Mar ’25R112.11
R90.71
-19.1%
20.9%R125.00R60.00n/a7
Feb ’25R121.00
R89.86
-25.7%
21.0%R125.00R60.00R214.397
Jan ’25R119.59
R78.86
-34.1%
16.3%R98.00R60.00R150.687
Dec ’24R118.41
R79.43
-32.9%
14.9%R98.00R66.00R165.007
Nov ’24R84.50
R70.71
-16.3%
8.9%R85.00R63.00R188.617
Oct ’24R71.02
R73.29
+3.2%
9.5%R88.00R68.00R186.407
Sep ’24R78.28
R81.00
+3.5%
13.3%R101.00R68.00R178.277
Aug ’24R74.79
R79.43
+6.2%
16.5%R101.00R57.00R175.657
Jul ’24R79.25
R78.71
-0.7%
19.3%R94.00R47.00R167.907
Jun ’24R95.02
R73.86
-22.3%
21.0%R94.00R47.00R170.917
May ’24R85.57
R71.86
-16.0%
23.6%R94.00R47.00R164.917
Apr ’24R73.18
R55.71
-23.9%
19.4%R70.00R40.00R158.017
Mar ’24R56.20
R57.50
+2.3%
19.3%R75.00R40.00R112.118
Feb ’24R63.29
R57.88
-8.6%
19.8%R75.00R40.00R121.008
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts
R187.50
Fair Value
19.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/07 18:23
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/07 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is covered by 21 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Herbert KharivheAbsa Bank Limited
Andrew ByrneBarclays
David HaughtonBMO Capital Markets Equity Research