Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited

JSE:HAR Stock Report

Market Cap: R101.9b

Harmony Gold Mining Valuation

Is HAR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HAR (ZAR164.42) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR117.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HAR is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HAR?

Key metric: As HAR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HAR. This is calculated by dividing HAR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HAR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.9x
EarningsR8.59b
Market CapR101.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HAR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HAR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.6x
GFI Gold Fields
18.9x39.3%R230.6b
KIO Kumba Iron Ore
5.5x-9.4%R111.0b
NPH Northam Platinum Holdings
24.6x29.9%R44.1b
AMS Anglo American Platinum
13.6x16.3%R157.6b
HAR Harmony Gold Mining
11.9x30.3%R101.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the peer average (15.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HAR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Metals and Mining Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAR 11.9xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies4PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HAR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HAR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.9x
Fair PE Ratio17.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HAR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR164.42
R160.67
-2.3%
15.6%R190.00R120.00n/a6
Nov ’25R188.61
R162.71
-13.7%
17.5%R210.00R120.00n/a7
Oct ’25R186.40
R143.50
-23.0%
23.8%R181.00R90.00n/a6
Sep ’25R178.27
R144.00
-19.2%
24.7%R185.00R88.00n/a6
Aug ’25R175.65
R132.43
-24.6%
26.0%R185.00R88.00n/a7
Jul ’25R167.90
R134.00
-20.2%
21.7%R175.00R90.00n/a7
Jun ’25R170.91
R129.00
-24.5%
21.6%R160.00R90.00n/a7
May ’25R164.91
R122.83
-25.5%
25.3%R165.00R90.00n/a6
Apr ’25R158.01
R95.00
-39.9%
21.1%R125.00R60.00n/a6
Mar ’25R112.11
R90.71
-19.1%
20.9%R125.00R60.00n/a7
Feb ’25R121.00
R89.86
-25.7%
21.0%R125.00R60.00n/a7
Jan ’25R119.59
R78.86
-34.1%
16.3%R98.00R60.00n/a7
Dec ’24R118.41
R79.43
-32.9%
14.9%R98.00R66.00R165.007
Nov ’24R84.50
R70.71
-16.3%
8.9%R85.00R63.00R188.617
Oct ’24R71.02
R73.29
+3.2%
9.5%R88.00R68.00R186.407
Sep ’24R78.28
R81.00
+3.5%
13.3%R101.00R68.00R178.277
Aug ’24R74.79
R79.43
+6.2%
16.5%R101.00R57.00R175.657
Jul ’24R79.25
R78.71
-0.7%
19.3%R94.00R47.00R167.907
Jun ’24R95.02
R73.86
-22.3%
21.0%R94.00R47.00R170.917
May ’24R85.57
R71.86
-16.0%
23.6%R94.00R47.00R164.917
Apr ’24R73.18
R55.71
-23.9%
19.4%R70.00R40.00R158.017
Mar ’24R56.20
R57.50
+2.3%
19.3%R75.00R40.00R112.118
Feb ’24R63.29
R57.88
-8.6%
19.8%R75.00R40.00R121.008
Jan ’24R58.80
R55.57
-5.5%
24.7%R75.00R40.00R119.597
Dec ’23R65.80
R53.25
-19.1%
26.3%R75.00R39.00R118.418

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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