Gold Fields Limited

JSE:GFI Stock Report

Market Cap: R252.1b

Gold Fields Valuation

Is GFI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GFI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GFI (ZAR281.64) is trading below our estimate of fair value (ZAR407.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GFI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GFI?

Key metric: As GFI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GFI. This is calculated by dividing GFI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GFI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.8x
EarningsUS$670.70m
Market CapUS$13.92b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GFI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GFI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.3x
HAR Harmony Gold Mining
13x29.4%R111.3b
AMS Anglo American Platinum
14x17.5%R162.8b
KIO Kumba Iron Ore
5.3x-9.1%R107.8b
NPH Northam Platinum Holdings
24.9x30.8%R44.8b
GFI Gold Fields
20.8x39.4%R252.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GFI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the peer average (14.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GFI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Metals and Mining Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GFI 20.8xIndustry Avg. 12.2xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GFI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GFI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GFI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.8x
Fair PE Ratio22.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GFI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GFI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR281.64
R283.62
+0.7%
13.4%R329.36R240.00n/a7
Nov ’25R290.03
R286.32
-1.3%
13.9%R339.26R240.00n/a7
Oct ’25R281.05
R272.20
-3.1%
11.9%R320.00R230.00n/a7
Sep ’25R247.94
R278.66
+12.4%
15.7%R350.00R230.00n/a6
Aug ’25R312.94
R294.71
-5.8%
17.6%R351.00R230.00n/a7
Jul ’25R271.65
R298.20
+9.8%
18.0%R351.00R230.00n/a7
Jun ’25R292.68
R294.32
+0.6%
20.0%R351.00R215.00n/a7
May ’25R310.70
R284.13
-8.6%
20.1%R352.76R220.00n/a6
Apr ’25R303.90
R244.69
-19.5%
9.0%R281.11R220.00n/a6
Mar ’25R251.85
R243.85
-3.2%
12.7%R284.94R185.00n/a7
Feb ’25R286.81
R249.84
-12.9%
12.1%R300.00R205.00n/a7
Jan ’25R277.78
R246.45
-11.3%
12.6%R300.00R213.00n/a7
Dec ’24R291.68
R241.00
-17.4%
10.8%R277.00R210.00n/a7
Nov ’24R240.89
R242.28
+0.6%
10.2%R275.00R210.00R290.037
Oct ’24R205.31
R247.77
+20.7%
6.3%R270.00R220.00R281.057
Sep ’24R240.93
R251.40
+4.3%
6.5%R276.00R220.00R247.947
Aug ’24R257.40
R262.42
+2.0%
8.5%R290.00R220.00R312.947
Jul ’24R261.64
R264.26
+1.0%
8.8%R290.00R220.00R271.657
Jun ’24R308.64
R262.10
-15.1%
13.9%R310.72R200.00R292.687
May ’24R284.05
R256.54
-9.7%
13.7%R290.00R200.00R310.707
Apr ’24R237.00
R220.52
-7.0%
12.9%R255.00R182.65R303.907
Mar ’24R167.92
R210.00
+25.1%
15.2%R252.00R152.00R251.858
Feb ’24R196.38
R216.50
+10.2%
15.1%R267.00R152.00R286.818
Jan ’24R176.15
R196.10
+11.3%
20.3%R267.00R152.00R277.789
Dec ’23R198.65
R188.11
-5.3%
18.6%R240.00R135.00R291.689
Nov ’23R146.90
R170.47
+16.0%
13.0%R200.00R135.00R240.897

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Sephaku Holdings

R440.4m

Operates as a construction materials company in South Africa.

SEP

R1.90

7D

5.6%

1Y

93.9%

Glencore

UK£46.3b

Engages in the production, refinement, processing, storage, transport, and marketing of metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania.

GLN

UK£86.52

7D

-1.6%

1Y

-18.4%

Sibanye Stillwater

R53.6b

Operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Europe, and Australia.

SSW

R18.94

7D

2.6%

1Y

-6.9%