South32 Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

South32 is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 53.1% and 8.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 51.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.3% in 3 years.

Key information

53.1%

Earnings growth rate

51.1%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth	33.7%
Revenue growth rate	8.7%
Future return on equity	10.3%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	09 Dec 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

JSE:S32 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2027	7,715	1,058	364	1,819	12
6/30/2026	7,640	1,087	258	1,733	13
6/30/2025	7,350	699	297	1,430	13
6/30/2024	5,587	-638	32	1,119	N/A
12/31/2023	6,982	-805	-283	802	N/A
9/30/2023	7,260	-489	14	997	N/A
6/30/2023	5,752	-618	311	1,191	N/A
3/31/2023	8,310	1,075	1,045	1,840	N/A
12/31/2022	9,082	2,322	1,779	2,489	N/A
9/30/2022	9,229	2,496	2,127	2,780	N/A
6/30/2022	9,375	2,669	2,474	3,070	N/A
3/31/2022	8,228	1,842	1,985	2,565	N/A
12/31/2021	7,081	1,014	1,496	2,059	N/A
9/30/2021	6,330	578	1,155	1,732	N/A
6/30/2021	5,578	142	814	1,405	N/A
12/31/2020	4,326	219	506	1,142	N/A
9/30/2020	4,730	189	549	1,254	N/A
6/30/2020	5,133	158	592	1,365	N/A
3/31/2020	6,587	-106	619	1,441	N/A
12/31/2019	6,928	-147	645	1,517	N/A
9/30/2019	7,224	121	853	1,667	N/A
6/30/2019	7,519	389	1,061	1,817	N/A
3/31/2019	7,788	907	1,458	2,122	N/A
12/31/2018	8,057	1,424	1,854	2,426	N/A
9/30/2018	7,901	1,378	1,549	2,072	N/A
6/30/2018	7,744	1,332	1,243	1,717	N/A
3/31/2018	7,600	1,243	N/A	1,750	N/A
12/31/2017	7,456	1,154	N/A	1,783	N/A
9/30/2017	7,326	1,193	N/A	1,958	N/A
6/30/2017	7,195	1,231	N/A	2,132	N/A
3/31/2017	6,765	993	N/A	1,690	N/A
12/31/2016	6,334	754	N/A	1,247	N/A
9/30/2016	6,227	-430	N/A	1,139	N/A
6/30/2016	6,119	-1,615	N/A	1,030	N/A
3/31/2016	6,288	-2,100	N/A	955	N/A
12/31/2015	6,457	-2,585	N/A	879	N/A
9/30/2015	5,265	-1,755	N/A	775	N/A
6/30/2015	4,072	-926	N/A	670	N/A
12/31/2014	-3,825	-407	N/A	-77	N/A
9/30/2014	-1,486	-203	N/A	42	N/A
6/30/2014	853	N/A	N/A	160	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: S32 is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (9.7%).

Earnings vs Market: S32 is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: S32 is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: S32's revenue (8.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the ZA market (3.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: S32's revenue (8.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: S32's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.3%).

South32 Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

South32 Limited Provides Production Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2024

Recent updates

South32 Limited Announces Board Appointments, Effective 1 February 2025

South32 Limited Announces Retirement of Keith Rumble as Independent Non-Executive Director

South32 Limited to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Feb 13, 2025

South32 Limited to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jan 20, 2025

South32 Limited Announces US Department of Energy Grant for Clark Battery-Grade Manganese

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought R899k worth of stock

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought R899k worth of stock

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought R899k worth of stock

Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

South32 Limited (ASX:S32) announces an Equity Buyback for AUD 200 million worth of its shares.

Stanmore Resources Limited (ASX:SMR) acquired 50% stake in Eagle Downs Metallurgical Coal Joint Venture Project from South32 Limited (ASX:S32).

Now 22% undervalued

Now 20% undervalued

Now 22% undervalued

Now 26% overvalued

Golden Energy and Resources Limited and M Resources Pty Ltd agreed to acquire Illawarra Metallurgical Coal from South32 Limited (ASX:S32) for $1.6 billion.

Golden Energy and Resources Limited and M Resources Pty Ltd agreed to acquire Illawarra Metallurgical Coal from South32 Limited (ASX:S32) for $1.6 billion.

First half dividend of US$0.004 announced

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.012 (vs US$0.15 in 1H 2023)

South32 Limited Declarers an Interim Dividend for the Half Year Ended 31 December 2023, Payable on 4 April 2024

Stanmore Resources Limited (ASX:SMR) entered into definitive agreement to acquire 50% stake in Eagle Downs Metallurgical Coal Joint Venture Project from South32 Limited (ASX:S32).

South32 Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 24, 2024

South32 Limited to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Jul 22, 2024

South32 Limited Announces the Appointment of Sharon Warburton as Independent Non-Executive Director

South32 Limited Announces the Appointment of Sharon Warburton as Independent Non-Executive Director

South32 Limited Provides Production Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2024

Upcoming dividend of US$0.032 per share at 3.7% yield

Coronado Reportedly in Talks with South32 on Coal Asset

South32 Limited Reports First Time Mineral Resource Estimate for the Sierra Gorda Copper Mine

South32 Limited Announces Ordinary Fully Paid Dividend for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2023, Payment Date of October 12, 2023

Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Suitors Reportedly Prepare to Lob Bids for Chalice

South32 Limited Announces Resignation of Guy Lansdown as Director

South32 Limited Provides Hermosa Project Update

South32 Reportedly Eyeing $3bn Copper Buy

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Now 20% undervalued

Upcoming dividend of US$0.049 per share at 11% yield

South32 Limited Resolves to Pay Interim Dividend for the Half Year Ended 31 December 2022, Payable 6 April 2023

Insufficient new directors

South32 Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 26, 2023

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought R262k worth of stock

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Now 23% undervalued

Now 21% undervalued

Upcoming dividend of US$0.17 per share

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

South32 Limited Resolves to Pay Final Dividend for the Year Ended 30 June 2022, Payable on 13 October 2022

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop

South32 Limited completed the acquisition of an additional 16.6% stake in Mozal Aluminium from MCA Metals Holding Gmbh for $200 million.

South32 Limited (ASX:S32) completed the acquisition of additional 18.2% stake in MRN Bauxite Mine from Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA).

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought R102k worth of stock

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought R102k worth of stock

Insufficient new directors

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

South32 Limited to Report Q4, 2022 Final Results on Jul 25, 2022

South32 Limited (ASX:S32) completed the acquisition of 31.5% stake in Sierra Gorda S.C.M. from Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. (TSE:5713).

First half 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

South32 Limited Declares Ordinary Franked Dividend for the Six Months Ended December 31, 2021, Payable on April 7, 2022

Now 20% undervalued

South32 Limited Announces Hermosa Project Update

South32 Limited with Joint Venture Partner Alcoa Corporation Announces Restart of Brazil Aluminium Using Renewable Power

Insufficient new directors

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Upcoming dividend of US$0.055 per share

Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.03 (vs US$0.013 loss in FY 2020)

Chief Legal Officer Nicole Duncan has left the company

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

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