Thungela Resources (TGA) Stock Overview
Engages in the mining and production of thermal coal in South Africa and Australia. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
TGA Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 37 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Thungela Resources Limited Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | R124.25 |
| 52 Week High | R180.61 |
| 52 Week Low | R73.10 |
| Beta | -1.16 |
| 1 Month Change | -7.62% |
| 3 Month Change | -23.30% |
| 1 Year Change | 43.76% |
| 3 Year Change | -7.96% |
| 5 Year Change | 234.73% |
| Change since IPO | 467.35% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jun 16
TGA: Higher Future P/E And Dividend Policy Will Support Undervalued Shares
The analyst price target for Thungela Resources has been revised from ZAR180.00 to ZAR250.00. Analysts attribute the change to updated fair value assumptions and a higher future P/E estimate as key drivers.Narrative Update • Jun 02
TGA: Large Cash Dividend Will Support Undervalued Shares In 2026
Analysts maintained their ZAR 180.00 price target for Thungela Resources, noting that only minor changes to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions were made, which did not materially change their valuation view. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for 20 March 2026 to consider approval of Thungela Resources' annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, for presentation at the next AGM.Narrative Update • May 18
TGA: Higher Fair Value And Dividend Will Offset 2025 Loss
Analysts have lifted their price target for Thungela Resources from ZAR115.00 to ZAR180.00, reflecting updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Board meeting scheduled for 20 March 2026 to consider approval of the annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 for presentation at the next AGM (Key Developments).Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 16
TGA: Higher Future P/E And Dividend Policy Will Support Undervalued Shares
The analyst price target for Thungela Resources has been revised from ZAR180.00 to ZAR250.00. Analysts attribute the change to updated fair value assumptions and a higher future P/E estimate as key drivers.Narrative Update • Jun 02
TGA: Large Cash Dividend Will Support Undervalued Shares In 2026
Analysts maintained their ZAR 180.00 price target for Thungela Resources, noting that only minor changes to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions were made, which did not materially change their valuation view. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for 20 March 2026 to consider approval of Thungela Resources' annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, for presentation at the next AGM.Narrative Update • May 18
TGA: Higher Fair Value And Dividend Will Offset 2025 Loss
Analysts have lifted their price target for Thungela Resources from ZAR115.00 to ZAR180.00, reflecting updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Board meeting scheduled for 20 March 2026 to consider approval of the annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 for presentation at the next AGM (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 20
TGA: Expected 2025 Loss And Dividend Constraints Will Pressure Equity Returns
Analysts have lifted their price target for Thungela Resources from ZAR50 to ZAR55, citing updated assumptions that now reflect milder expected revenue declines, a higher projected profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple in their valuation work. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for 20 March 2026 to consider approval of Thungela Resources' annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025.Narrative Update • Apr 06
TGA: Guided 2025 Loss Will Keep Shares Under Pressure
Analysts have kept the ZAR115.00 price target for Thungela Resources unchanged, highlighting adjusted expectations for revenue growth at about 7% and a higher profit margin near 12%, which together support a lower forward P/E assumption of roughly 5x. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for 20 March 2026 to consider approval of the annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 for presentation at the next AGM (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 23
TGA: Guided 2025 Loss And Lower P/E Multiple Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Thungela Resources from ZAR120 to ZAR115, citing updated assumptions that include a slightly higher long term discount rate, modestly softer revenue growth, improved profit margin expectations and a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued earnings guidance for the year ending 31 December 2025, indicating an expected loss per share between ZAR 53.50 and ZAR 56.00 (company guidance).Narrative Update • Mar 08
TGA: Expected 2025 Loss Will Outweigh Higher Export Production Guidance
Analysts have kept their ZAR fair value estimate for Thungela Resources steady while adjusting their assumptions for slightly softer revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a lower future P/E. Together, these factors inform the latest price target narrative.
Narrative Update • Feb 22
TGA: Higher 2025 Export Target Will Expose Overstretched Earnings Multiple
Analysts have trimmed their ZAR79.28 fair value estimate for Thungela Resources to ZAR75.50, citing updated assumptions around revenue trends, profitability and a lower forward P/E of about 31.70x. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued production guidance for full year 2025, targeting approximately 13.7 Mt of export saleable production (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 08
TGA: Softer Revenue And Margins Will Offset Higher Production Guidance
Analysts have kept their fair value estimate for Thungela Resources steady at A$50.00, with only small tweaks to inputs such as a slightly lower discount rate, a modestly softer revenue growth outlook, a marginally narrower profit margin, and a mildly higher future P/E, guiding this unchanged target. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued production guidance for full year 2025, indicating it will achieve approximately 13.7 Mt of export saleable production, compared with a guidance range of 12.8 Mt to 13.6 Mt (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 25
TGA: Higher Export Guidance Will Support Elevated Future P/E Expectations
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Thungela Resources from R135.00 to R120.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a higher future P/E of about 32x as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued full year 2025 production guidance of approximately 13.7 Mt of export saleable production, which is above its guidance range of 12.8 Mt to 13.6 Mt (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 10
TGA: Lower Margins And Weaker Revenue Will Pressure Future Returns
Analysts have cut their fair value estimate for Thungela Resources from R92.00 to R50.00, citing updated assumptions that include a slightly lower revenue growth outlook, a narrower profit margin and a modestly reduced forward P/E multiple. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued full year 2025 production guidance of approximately 13.7 Mt of export saleable production, compared with a prior guidance range of 12.8 Mt to 13.6 Mt (company guidance).Analysis Article • Dec 29
Thungela Resources' (JSE:TGA) Returns Have Hit A Wall
To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Firstly, we'll want to...Narrative Update • Dec 22
TGA: Leadership Transition Will Drive Weak Earnings Expectations And Share Price Down
Analysts have nudged their price target for Thungela Resources higher to approximately R79.28 from R76.75, citing marginally stronger long term earnings potential reflected in a slightly richer future P E assumption. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued full year 2025 production guidance, targeting approximately 13.7 Mt of export saleable production, above the prior guidance range of 12.8 Mt to 13.6 Mt (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Dec 08
TGA: Leadership Change And Weak Earnings Outlook Will Pressure Share Price
Analysts have slightly adjusted their price target on Thungela Resources to align with an updated fair value estimate of R76.75 per share, reflecting stable assumptions on revenue growth, discount rate, and margins. What's in the News CEO designate Moses Madondo will formally assume the role of CEO with full executive responsibilities from 1 November 2025, marking the conclusion of the leadership transition process at Thungela Resources (company announcement).Analysis Article • Dec 02
There's No Escaping Thungela Resources Limited's (JSE:TGA) Muted Earnings
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.2x Thungela Resources Limited ( JSE:TGA ) may be sending very bullish...Narrative Update • Nov 24
TGA: Leadership Transition And Stable Outlook Will Guide Market Sentiment Ahead
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Thungela Resources at R76.75. They have made minimal adjustments to underlying assumptions, reflecting stable expectations for the company’s financial outlook.Narrative Update • Nov 06
TGA: Future Leadership Transition And Lower Earnings Will Influence Market Stability
Thungela Resources: Analyst Price Target Update Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for Thungela Resources from R94.95 to R76.75. They cite revised expectations for revenue growth and profit margins as key factors in the adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Maintain Thungela Resources Price Target as Earnings Forecast Drops and Leadership Change Nears
Analysts have maintained their price target for Thungela Resources at R94.95, citing unchanged forecasts and a consistent outlook for the company's key performance indicators. What's in the News Mr. Moses Madondo, currently CEO Designate, will formally assume the role of CEO with full executive responsibilities from 1 November 2025.Narrative Update • Oct 08
Southeast Asia Demand Will Support Coal Exports Though Challenges Remain
Analysts have revised their price target for Thungela Resources down by approximately R10. They now estimate a fair value of R94.95, citing updated outlooks for revenue growth and profit margins.Narrative Update • Sep 12
Southeast Asia Demand Will Support Coal Exports Though Challenges Remain
Amid a decline in the consensus Future P/E multiple, Thungela Resources' analyst price target has been revised downward from ZAR111.70 to ZAR104.95. What's in the News Thungela Resources expects H1 2025 EPS and HEPS between ZAR 1.40 and ZAR 2.10, sharply down from ZAR 9.52 the previous year.Analysis Article • Aug 20
Thungela Resources (JSE:TGA) Hasn't Managed To Accelerate Its Returns
JSE:TGA 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Thungela Resources's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...
New Narrative • Feb 09
Ensham Production Upgrades Will Increase Output, But Future Margins May Face Pressure From Rising Costs
Production upgrades and life extension projects are set to boost revenue and enhance long-term competitiveness through increased availability and stable future earnings.Shareholder Returns
| TGA | ZA Oil and Gas | ZA Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -7.0% | -0.7% | 0.8% |
| 1Y | 43.8% | 67.1% | 18.0% |
Return vs Industry: TGA underperformed the ZA Oil and Gas industry which returned 64.6% over the past year.
Return vs Market: TGA exceeded the ZA Market which returned 19.6% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| TGA volatility | |
|---|---|
| TGA Average Weekly Movement | 10.4% |
| Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement | 5.2% |
| Market Average Movement | 4.7% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in ZA Market | 10.4% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in ZA Market | 3.0% |
Stable Share Price: TGA's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months compared to the ZA market.
Volatility Over Time: TGA's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of ZA stocks.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1945 | n/a | T. Madondo | www.thungela.com |
Thungela Resources Limited engages in the mining and production of thermal coal in South Africa and Australia. It owns interests in and produces its thermal coal from mining operations, consisting of underground and open cast mines in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa, including Greenside colliery, Khwezela colliery, Zibulo colliery, Mafube colliery, and Annea colliery. The company also holds 100% of the Ensham Mine located in Queensland, Australia.
Thungela Resources Limited Fundamentals Summary
| TGA fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | R15.78b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -R7.08b |
| Revenue (TTM) | R29.60b |
0.5x
P/S Ratio-2.2x
P/E RatioIs TGA overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| TGA income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | R29.60b |
| Cost of Revenue | R14.60b |
| Gross Profit | R15.00b |
| Other Expenses | R22.09b |
| Earnings | -R7.08b |
Last Reported Earnings
Dec 31, 2025
Next Earnings Date
Aug 17, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -55.79 |
| Gross Margin | 50.69% |
| Net Profit Margin | -23.94% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0% |
How did TGA perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
3.2%
Current Dividend Yield-7%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/21 04:51 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/19 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Thungela Resources Limited is covered by 6 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Herbert Kharivhe | Absa Bank Limited |
| Ephrem Ravi | Citigroup Inc |
| Brian Morgan | Morgan Stanley |