Thungela Resources Limited

JSE:TGA Stock Report

Market Cap: R18.4b

Thungela Resources Valuation

Is TGA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TGA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TGA (ZAR137.79) is trading below our estimate of fair value (ZAR147.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TGA is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TGA?

Key metric: As TGA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TGA. This is calculated by dividing TGA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TGA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.5x
EarningsR3.37b
Market CapR18.39b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TGA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TGA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.9x
EXX Exxaro Resources
4.6x-5.7%R40.8b
000968 Shanxi Blue Flame Holding
16.2x23.6%CN¥6.8b
600121 Zhengzhou Coal Industry & Electric Power
42.7xn/aCN¥5.8b
MCOL Prima Andalan Mandiri
8xn/aRp19.1t
TGA Thungela Resources
5.5x-9.6%R18.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TGA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the peer average (17.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TGA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?

30 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TGA 5.5xIndustry Avg. 10.5xNo. of Companies84PE0816243240+
30 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TGA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TGA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TGA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.5x
Fair PE Ratio4.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TGA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TGA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR137.79
R128.67
-6.6%
14.9%R155.00R110.00n/a3
Nov ’25R126.15
R128.67
+2.0%
14.9%R155.00R110.00n/a3
Oct ’25R112.29
R125.33
+11.6%
18.1%R155.00R100.00n/a3
Sep ’25R116.20
R132.67
+14.2%
21.7%R170.00R100.00n/a3
Aug ’25R122.63
R132.00
+7.6%
18.9%R170.00R100.00n/a4
Jul ’25R113.76
R139.50
+22.6%
26.4%R200.00R100.00n/a4
Jun ’25R134.50
R141.25
+5.0%
25.8%R200.00R100.00n/a4
May ’25R132.47
R141.25
+6.6%
25.8%R200.00R100.00n/a4
Apr ’25R121.88
R124.67
+2.3%
14.7%R144.00R100.00n/a3
Mar ’25R107.10
R124.67
+16.4%
14.7%R144.00R100.00n/a3
Feb ’25R119.28
R141.00
+18.2%
23.0%R190.00R100.00n/a4
Jan ’25R153.80
R157.25
+2.2%
14.4%R190.00R130.00n/a4
Dec ’24R145.03
R158.40
+9.2%
14.7%R190.00R130.00n/a4
Nov ’24R166.82
R160.90
-3.6%
15.4%R190.00R130.00R126.154
Oct ’24R173.65
R150.90
-13.1%
15.8%R190.00R125.00R112.294
Sep ’24R154.77
R152.50
-1.5%
15.5%R190.00R125.00R116.204
Aug ’24R131.09
R152.50
+16.3%
15.5%R190.00R125.00R122.634
Jul ’24R147.94
R167.50
+13.2%
13.1%R200.00R145.00R113.764
Jun ’24R135.73
R199.25
+46.8%
9.9%R225.00R175.00R134.504
May ’24R171.24
R212.75
+24.2%
11.3%R240.00R175.00R132.474
Apr ’24R202.15
R252.75
+25.0%
19.2%R335.00R211.00R121.884
Mar ’24R215.46
R272.50
+26.5%
24.3%R340.00R190.00R107.104
Feb ’24R234.79
R306.25
+30.4%
22.1%R360.00R190.00R119.284
Jan ’24R286.66
R334.50
+16.7%
23.0%R425.00R213.00R153.804
Dec ’23R323.19
R339.50
+5.0%
22.9%R425.00R213.00R145.034
Nov ’23R267.57
R339.50
+26.9%
22.9%R425.00R213.00R166.824

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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