Thungela Resources Limited

JSE:TGA Stock Report

Market Cap: R12.8b

Thungela Resources Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Thungela Resources's revenue is forecast to decline at 0.9% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 57.8% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 57.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 3.7% in 3 years.

Key information

57.8%

Earnings growth rate

57.94%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth11.7%
Revenue growth rate-0.9%
Future return on equity3.70%
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated10 Jul 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jul 15

TGA: Higher Future P/E Assumptions Will Pressure Forward Equity Returns

Analysts have raised their price target for Thungela Resources from ZAR 55.00 to ZAR 60.00, citing updated fair value assumptions, a slightly lower discount rate, and revised expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels. What's in the News No recent Thungela Resources specific news or key developments were identified in the provided sources.
Narrative Update • Jul 01

TGA: Improved Margin Outlook Will Support Repriced Earnings Multiple

Analysts have increased their price target for Thungela Resources from ZAR75.50 to ZAR135.75, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and a lower forward P/E multiple in their models. What's in the News for Thungela Resources No recent Thungela Resources specific news items were provided in the primary news feed.
Narrative Update • Jun 16

TGA: Higher Future P/E And Dividend Policy Will Support Undervalued Shares

The analyst price target for Thungela Resources has been revised from ZAR180.00 to ZAR250.00. Analysts attribute the change to updated fair value assumptions and a higher future P/E estimate as key drivers.
Narrative Update • Jun 02

TGA: Large Cash Dividend Will Support Undervalued Shares In 2026

Analysts maintained their ZAR 180.00 price target for Thungela Resources, noting that only minor changes to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions were made, which did not materially change their valuation view. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for 20 March 2026 to consider approval of Thungela Resources' annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, for presentation at the next AGM.
Narrative Update • May 18

TGA: Higher Fair Value And Dividend Will Offset 2025 Loss

Analysts have lifted their price target for Thungela Resources from ZAR115.00 to ZAR180.00, reflecting updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Board meeting scheduled for 20 March 2026 to consider approval of the annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 for presentation at the next AGM (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 20

TGA: Expected 2025 Loss And Dividend Constraints Will Pressure Equity Returns

Analysts have lifted their price target for Thungela Resources from ZAR50 to ZAR55, citing updated assumptions that now reflect milder expected revenue declines, a higher projected profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple in their valuation work. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for 20 March 2026 to consider approval of Thungela Resources' annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025.
Narrative Update • Apr 06

TGA: Guided 2025 Loss Will Keep Shares Under Pressure

Analysts have kept the ZAR115.00 price target for Thungela Resources unchanged, highlighting adjusted expectations for revenue growth at about 7% and a higher profit margin near 12%, which together support a lower forward P/E assumption of roughly 5x. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for 20 March 2026 to consider approval of the annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 for presentation at the next AGM (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 23

TGA: Guided 2025 Loss And Lower P/E Multiple Will Pressure Shares

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Thungela Resources from ZAR120 to ZAR115, citing updated assumptions that include a slightly higher long term discount rate, modestly softer revenue growth, improved profit margin expectations and a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued earnings guidance for the year ending 31 December 2025, indicating an expected loss per share between ZAR 53.50 and ZAR 56.00 (company guidance).
Narrative Update • Mar 08

TGA: Expected 2025 Loss Will Outweigh Higher Export Production Guidance

Analysts have kept their ZAR fair value estimate for Thungela Resources steady while adjusting their assumptions for slightly softer revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a lower future P/E. Together, these factors inform the latest price target narrative.
Narrative Update • Feb 22

TGA: Higher 2025 Export Target Will Expose Overstretched Earnings Multiple

Analysts have trimmed their ZAR79.28 fair value estimate for Thungela Resources to ZAR75.50, citing updated assumptions around revenue trends, profitability and a lower forward P/E of about 31.70x. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued production guidance for full year 2025, targeting approximately 13.7 Mt of export saleable production (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Feb 08

TGA: Softer Revenue And Margins Will Offset Higher Production Guidance

Analysts have kept their fair value estimate for Thungela Resources steady at A$50.00, with only small tweaks to inputs such as a slightly lower discount rate, a modestly softer revenue growth outlook, a marginally narrower profit margin, and a mildly higher future P/E, guiding this unchanged target. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued production guidance for full year 2025, indicating it will achieve approximately 13.7 Mt of export saleable production, compared with a guidance range of 12.8 Mt to 13.6 Mt (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 25

TGA: Higher Export Guidance Will Support Elevated Future P/E Expectations

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Thungela Resources from R135.00 to R120.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a higher future P/E of about 32x as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued full year 2025 production guidance of approximately 13.7 Mt of export saleable production, which is above its guidance range of 12.8 Mt to 13.6 Mt (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 10

TGA: Lower Margins And Weaker Revenue Will Pressure Future Returns

Analysts have cut their fair value estimate for Thungela Resources from R92.00 to R50.00, citing updated assumptions that include a slightly lower revenue growth outlook, a narrower profit margin and a modestly reduced forward P/E multiple. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued full year 2025 production guidance of approximately 13.7 Mt of export saleable production, compared with a prior guidance range of 12.8 Mt to 13.6 Mt (company guidance).
Analysis Article • Dec 29

Thungela Resources' (JSE:TGA) Returns Have Hit A Wall

To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Firstly, we'll want to...
Narrative Update • Dec 22

TGA: Leadership Transition Will Drive Weak Earnings Expectations And Share Price Down

Analysts have nudged their price target for Thungela Resources higher to approximately R79.28 from R76.75, citing marginally stronger long term earnings potential reflected in a slightly richer future P E assumption. What's in the News Thungela Resources issued full year 2025 production guidance, targeting approximately 13.7 Mt of export saleable production, above the prior guidance range of 12.8 Mt to 13.6 Mt (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Dec 08

TGA: Leadership Change And Weak Earnings Outlook Will Pressure Share Price

Analysts have slightly adjusted their price target on Thungela Resources to align with an updated fair value estimate of R76.75 per share, reflecting stable assumptions on revenue growth, discount rate, and margins. What's in the News CEO designate Moses Madondo will formally assume the role of CEO with full executive responsibilities from 1 November 2025, marking the conclusion of the leadership transition process at Thungela Resources (company announcement).
Analysis Article • Dec 02

There's No Escaping Thungela Resources Limited's (JSE:TGA) Muted Earnings

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.2x Thungela Resources Limited ( JSE:TGA ) may be sending very bullish...
Narrative Update • Nov 24

TGA: Leadership Transition And Stable Outlook Will Guide Market Sentiment Ahead

Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Thungela Resources at R76.75. They have made minimal adjustments to underlying assumptions, reflecting stable expectations for the company’s financial outlook.
Narrative Update • Nov 06

TGA: Future Leadership Transition And Lower Earnings Will Influence Market Stability

Thungela Resources: Analyst Price Target Update Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for Thungela Resources from R94.95 to R76.75. They cite revised expectations for revenue growth and profit margins as key factors in the adjustment.
Narrative Update • Oct 22

Analysts Maintain Thungela Resources Price Target as Earnings Forecast Drops and Leadership Change Nears

Analysts have maintained their price target for Thungela Resources at R94.95, citing unchanged forecasts and a consistent outlook for the company's key performance indicators. What's in the News Mr. Moses Madondo, currently CEO Designate, will formally assume the role of CEO with full executive responsibilities from 1 November 2025.
Narrative Update • Oct 08

Southeast Asia Demand Will Support Coal Exports Though Challenges Remain

Analysts have revised their price target for Thungela Resources down by approximately R10. They now estimate a fair value of R94.95, citing updated outlooks for revenue growth and profit margins.
Narrative Update • Sep 12

Southeast Asia Demand Will Support Coal Exports Though Challenges Remain

Amid a decline in the consensus Future P/E multiple, Thungela Resources' analyst price target has been revised downward from ZAR111.70 to ZAR104.95. What's in the News Thungela Resources expects H1 2025 EPS and HEPS between ZAR 1.40 and ZAR 2.10, sharply down from ZAR 9.52 the previous year.
Analysis Article • Aug 20

Thungela Resources (JSE:TGA) Hasn't Managed To Accelerate Its Returns

JSE:TGA 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Thungela Resources's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...
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New Narrative • Feb 09

Ensham Production Upgrades Will Increase Output, But Future Margins May Face Pressure From Rising Costs

Production upgrades and life extension projects are set to boost revenue and enhance long-term competitiveness through increased availability and stable future earnings.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

JSE:TGA - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (ZAR Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202830,2611,304842,0665
12/31/202732,9864,5301,9313,0755
12/31/202632,7384,5101,6503,6365
12/31/202529,599-7,085-7192,368N/A
9/30/202531,607-2,2645053,583N/A
6/30/202533,6152,5571,7294,798N/A
3/31/202534,5853,0751,8115,044N/A
12/31/202435,5543,5921,8935,289N/A
9/30/202434,2913,4811,6985,364N/A
6/30/202433,0273,3701,5035,439N/A
3/31/202431,8314,2663,3596,971N/A
12/31/202330,6345,1625,2158,503N/A
9/30/202334,7858,1369,01011,778N/A
6/30/202338,93611,11012,80415,052N/A
3/31/202344,84514,04915,33317,418N/A
12/31/202250,75316,98817,86119,784N/A
9/30/202246,58316,07216,14617,908N/A
6/30/202242,41215,15514,43016,032N/A
3/31/202234,34710,7929,11211,074N/A
12/31/202126,2826,4293,7936,116N/A
9/30/202119,2113,2269672,956N/A
6/30/202112,13923-1,860-204N/A
3/31/20217,945-153-1,152-22N/A
12/31/20203,750-330-444160N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TGA is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (9.8%).

Earnings vs Market: TGA is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: TGA is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TGA's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TGA's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.9% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TGA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (3.7%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/22 02:31
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/21 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Thungela Resources Limited is covered by 7 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Herbert KharivheAbsa Bank Limited
Ephrem RaviCitigroup Inc
Brian MorganMorgan Stanley