Exxaro Resources Valuation

Is EXX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EXX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EXX (ZAR171.07) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR121.88)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EXX is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EXX?

Key metric: As EXX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EXX. This is calculated by dividing EXX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EXX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	4.6x
Earnings	R9.07b
Market Cap	R40.82b

EXX key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	4.5x
PEG Ratio	-0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EXX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EXX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.4x
TGA Thungela Resources	5.5x	-9.6%	R18.4b
SCC Semirara Mining and Power	6.4x	-4.2%	₱135.0b
000552 Gansu Energy Chemical	12.6x	19.1%	CN¥15.2b
ITMG Indo Tambangraya Megah	5.3x	-9.5%	Rp30.9t
EXX Exxaro Resources	4.6x	-5.7%	R40.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EXX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the peer average (7.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EXX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?

30 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

30 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EXX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EXX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EXX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.6x
Fair PE Ratio	4.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EXX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EXX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	R171.07	R211.17 +23.4%	10.3%	R240.00	R170.00	n/a	6
Nov ’25	R165.58	R219.40 +32.5%	5.8%	R240.00	R200.00	n/a	5
Oct ’25	R173.11	R228.40 +31.9%	3.8%	R240.00	R217.00	n/a	5
Sep ’25	R160.00	R234.40 +46.5%	4.7%	R250.00	R217.00	n/a	5
Aug ’25	R191.22	R231.83 +21.2%	6.7%	R250.00	R200.00	n/a	6
Jul ’25	R179.46	R229.33 +27.8%	8.2%	R260.00	R200.00	n/a	6
Jun ’25	R181.43	R228.50 +25.9%	8.2%	R260.00	R200.00	n/a	6
May ’25	R181.01	R228.50 +26.2%	8.2%	R260.00	R200.00	n/a	6
Apr ’25	R168.98	R221.67 +31.2%	8.1%	R260.00	R205.00	n/a	6
Mar ’25	R180.93	R211.43 +16.9%	13.5%	R260.00	R155.00	n/a	7
Feb ’25	R187.77	R211.43 +12.6%	13.5%	R260.00	R155.00	n/a	7
Jan ’25	R204.48	R205.43 +0.5%	12.5%	R240.00	R155.00	n/a	7
Dec ’24	R191.47	R206.86 +8.0%	12.7%	R240.00	R155.00	n/a	7
Nov ’24	R192.93	R204.29 +5.9%	14.5%	R240.00	R145.00	R165.58	7
Oct ’24	R172.38	R195.00 +13.1%	15.1%	R240.00	R145.00	R173.11	7
Sep ’24	R169.30	R195.00 +15.2%	15.1%	R240.00	R145.00	R160.00	7
Aug ’24	R162.87	R195.00 +19.7%	15.2%	R240.00	R150.00	R191.22	7
Jul ’24	R164.27	R203.57 +23.9%	16.0%	R250.00	R150.00	R179.46	7
Jun ’24	R163.02	R221.43 +35.8%	11.6%	R260.00	R185.00	R181.43	7
May ’24	R191.82	R217.14 +13.2%	14.2%	R260.00	R170.00	R181.01	7
Apr ’24	R186.55	R235.00 +26.0%	18.4%	R310.00	R170.00	R168.98	7
Mar ’24	R201.93	R252.14 +24.9%	14.4%	R310.00	R180.00	R180.93	7
Feb ’24	R220.91	R259.29 +17.4%	16.7%	R320.00	R180.00	R187.77	7
Jan ’24	R217.31	R265.00 +21.9%	15.5%	R320.00	R180.00	R204.48	7
Dec ’23	R220.32	R259.29 +17.7%	12.5%	R290.00	R190.00	R191.47	7
Nov ’23	R205.64	R259.29 +26.1%	12.7%	R300.00	R190.00	R192.93	7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.