Pick n Pay Stores Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of PIK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PIK (ZAR28.81) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (ZAR116.86)

Is PIK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PIK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PIK (ZAR28.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value (ZAR116.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PIK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PIK?

Key metric: As PIK is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for PIK. This is calculated by dividing PIK's market cap by their current revenue.
What is PIK's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.2x
Sales	R117.19b
Market Cap	R21.20b

PIK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	16.8x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does PIK's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for PIK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.5x
SHP Shoprite Holdings	0.7x	8.6%	R161.7b
KAL KAL Group	0.2x	n/a	R3.5b
SPP SPAR Group	0.2x	4.3%	R24.6b
DCP Dis-Chem Pharmacies	0.8x	11.4%	R31.8b
PIK Pick n Pay Stores	0.2x	4.4%	R21.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: PIK is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does PIK's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Consumer Retailing Industry?

53 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

53 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: PIK is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the Global Consumer Retailing industry average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PIK's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PIK PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.2x
Fair PS Ratio	0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: PIK is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PIK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	R28.81	R27.42 -4.8%	7.9%	R30.60	R24.00	n/a	5
Nov ’25	R25.80	R26.00 +0.8%	5.6%	R27.50	R24.00	n/a	5
Oct ’25	R26.30	R25.88 -1.6%	7.2%	R29.00	R24.00	n/a	5
Sep ’25	R24.30	R25.88 +6.5%	7.2%	R29.00	R24.00	n/a	5
Aug ’25	R22.94	R26.02 +13.4%	10.1%	R30.00	R23.30	n/a	6
Jul ’25	R25.99	R27.05 +4.1%	10.2%	R30.00	R23.30	n/a	6
Jun ’25	R24.84	R24.31 -2.1%	18.0%	R30.00	R20.00	n/a	7
May ’25	R20.16	R24.46 +21.3%	20.1%	R33.00	R20.00	n/a	7
Apr ’25	R18.68	R24.46 +30.9%	20.1%	R33.00	R20.00	n/a	7
Mar ’25	R19.90	R25.17 +26.5%	18.1%	R33.00	R20.00	n/a	7
Feb ’25	R23.22	R34.29 +47.7%	52.7%	R75.00	R20.00	n/a	7
Jan ’25	R23.27	R35.57 +52.9%	51.0%	R75.00	R20.00	n/a	7
Dec ’24	R22.71	R35.57 +56.6%	51.0%	R75.00	R20.00	n/a	7
Nov ’24	R24.28	R39.14 +61.2%	45.0%	R75.00	R20.00	R25.80	7
Oct ’24	R37.00	R48.28 +30.5%	35.2%	R85.00	R37.00	R26.30	6
Sep ’24	R35.33	R48.28 +36.7%	35.2%	R85.00	R37.00	R24.30	6
Aug ’24	R37.40	R48.28 +29.1%	35.2%	R85.00	R37.00	R22.94	6
Jul ’24	R38.88	R48.67 +25.2%	33.9%	R85.00	R38.00	R25.99	6
Jun ’24	R31.25	R48.17 +54.1%	34.4%	R85.00	R38.00	R24.84	6
May ’24	R43.42	R63.40 +46.0%	26.0%	R97.00	R49.00	R20.16	6
Apr ’24	R42.27	R63.40 +50.0%	26.0%	R97.00	R49.00	R18.68	6
Mar ’24	R46.45	R61.91 +33.3%	25.4%	R97.00	R49.00	R19.90	7
Feb ’24	R54.96	R71.64 +30.4%	20.2%	R100.00	R52.00	R23.22	7
Jan ’24	R56.79	R71.71 +26.3%	20.1%	R100.00	R52.00	R23.27	7
Dec ’23	R58.05	R71.71 +23.5%	20.1%	R100.00	R52.00	R22.71	7
Nov ’23	R59.60	R71.71 +20.3%	20.1%	R100.00	R52.00	R24.28	7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.