Shoprite Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of SHP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SHP (ZAR302.8) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (ZAR124.07)

Is SHP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SHP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SHP (ZAR302.8) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR124.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SHP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SHP?

Key metric: As SHP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SHP. This is calculated by dividing SHP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SHP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	25.1x
Earnings	R6.57b
Market Cap	R164.68b

SHP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	13.3x
PEG Ratio	2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SHP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SHP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	22.3x
BID Bid	18.9x	7.8%	R151.2b
KAL KAL Group	7.7x	n/a	R3.4b
CLS Clicks Group	32.1x	12.1%	R91.1b
DCP Dis-Chem Pharmacies	30.3x	19.3%	R32.2b
SHP Shoprite Holdings	25.1x	11.7%	R164.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SHP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the peer average (22.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SHP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Consumer Retailing Industry?

8 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

8 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SHP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the Global Consumer Retailing industry average (16.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SHP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SHP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	25.1x
Fair PE Ratio	28.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SHP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SHP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	R302.80	R311.71 +2.9%	9.4%	R360.00	R266.00	n/a	7
Nov ’25	R304.19	R311.71 +2.5%	9.4%	R360.00	R266.00	n/a	7
Oct ’25	R291.59	R312.43 +7.1%	9.8%	R365.00	R266.00	n/a	7
Sep ’25	R310.08	R303.40 -2.2%	8.0%	R343.00	R266.00	n/a	7
Aug ’25	R302.70	R300.11 -0.9%	8.5%	R343.00	R265.00	n/a	7
Jul ’25	R291.50	R290.83 -0.2%	6.5%	R315.00	R265.00	n/a	7
Jun ’25	R249.69	R286.54 +14.8%	7.0%	R315.00	R265.00	n/a	7
May ’25	R251.75	R284.54 +13.0%	8.0%	R315.00	R251.00	n/a	7
Apr ’25	R247.44	R277.97 +12.3%	11.5%	R315.00	R220.00	n/a	7
Mar ’25	R259.15	R260.83 +0.6%	11.7%	R312.00	R220.00	n/a	6
Feb ’25	R272.71	R270.71 -0.7%	13.7%	R330.00	R220.00	n/a	7
Jan ’25	R275.05	R267.29 -2.8%	13.6%	R330.00	R220.00	n/a	7
Dec ’24	R253.01	R267.29 +5.6%	13.6%	R330.00	R220.00	n/a	7
Nov ’24	R239.58	R264.14 +10.3%	13.3%	R325.00	R220.00	R304.19	7
Oct ’24	R239.84	R265.86 +10.8%	13.0%	R325.00	R220.00	R291.59	7
Sep ’24	R261.52	R264.71 +1.2%	14.5%	R335.00	R219.00	R310.08	7
Aug ’24	R258.70	R262.57 +1.5%	14.4%	R335.00	R219.00	R302.70	7
Jul ’24	R225.60	R261.17 +15.8%	9.9%	R304.00	R217.00	R291.50	6
Jun ’24	R196.27	R258.83 +31.9%	11.6%	R304.00	R203.00	R249.69	6
May ’24	R222.95	R261.17 +17.1%	11.7%	R304.00	R203.00	R251.75	6
Apr ’24	R222.26	R262.83 +18.3%	10.5%	R304.00	R213.00	R247.44	6
Mar ’24	R223.37	R259.71 +16.3%	13.6%	R322.00	R213.00	R259.15	7
Feb ’24	R232.12	R260.14 +12.1%	13.7%	R322.00	R213.00	R272.71	7
Jan ’24	R226.00	R261.57 +15.7%	13.3%	R322.00	R213.00	R275.05	7
Dec ’23	R240.00	R259.71 +8.2%	13.0%	R322.00	R213.00	R253.01	7
Nov ’23	R232.24	R255.43 +10.0%	12.5%	R304.00	R201.00	R239.58	7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.