Shoprite Holdings Ltd

JSE:SHP Stock Report

Market Cap: R164.4b

Shoprite Holdings Valuation

Is SHP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SHP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SHP (ZAR299.68) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR132.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SHP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SHP?

Key metric: As SHP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SHP. This is calculated by dividing SHP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SHP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.8x
EarningsR6.57b
Market CapR164.39b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SHP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SHP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.9x
BOX Boxer Retail
20.4xn/aR29.5b
BID Bid
18.1x7.8%R145.4b
KAL KAL Group
9.1xn/aR3.6b
CLS Clicks Group
31.9x12.1%R92.0b
SHP Shoprite Holdings
24.8x12.8%R164.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SHP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x) compared to the peer average (19.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SHP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Consumer Retailing Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SHP 24.8xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies54PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SHP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x) compared to the Global Consumer Retailing industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SHP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SHP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.8x
Fair PE Ratio29.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SHP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SHP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR299.68
R314.00
+4.8%
8.8%R360.00R266.00n/a7
Dec ’25R295.79
R311.71
+5.4%
9.4%R360.00R266.00n/a7
Nov ’25R304.19
R311.71
+2.5%
9.4%R360.00R266.00n/a7
Oct ’25R291.59
R312.43
+7.1%
9.8%R365.00R266.00n/a7
Sep ’25R310.08
R303.40
-2.2%
8.0%R343.00R266.00n/a7
Aug ’25R302.70
R300.11
-0.9%
8.5%R343.00R265.00n/a7
Jul ’25R291.50
R290.83
-0.2%
6.5%R315.00R265.00n/a7
Jun ’25R249.69
R286.54
+14.8%
7.0%R315.00R265.00n/a7
May ’25R251.75
R284.54
+13.0%
8.0%R315.00R251.00n/a7
Apr ’25R247.44
R277.97
+12.3%
11.5%R315.00R220.00n/a7
Mar ’25R259.15
R260.83
+0.6%
11.7%R312.00R220.00n/a6
Feb ’25R272.71
R270.71
-0.7%
13.7%R330.00R220.00n/a7
Jan ’25R275.05
R267.29
-2.8%
13.6%R330.00R220.00n/a7
Dec ’24R253.01
R267.29
+5.6%
13.6%R330.00R220.00R295.797
Nov ’24R239.58
R264.14
+10.3%
13.3%R325.00R220.00R304.197
Oct ’24R239.84
R265.86
+10.8%
13.0%R325.00R220.00R291.597
Sep ’24R261.52
R264.71
+1.2%
14.5%R335.00R219.00R310.087
Aug ’24R258.70
R262.57
+1.5%
14.4%R335.00R219.00R302.707
Jul ’24R225.60
R261.17
+15.8%
9.9%R304.00R217.00R291.506
Jun ’24R196.27
R258.83
+31.9%
11.6%R304.00R203.00R249.696
May ’24R222.95
R261.17
+17.1%
11.7%R304.00R203.00R251.756
Apr ’24R222.26
R262.83
+18.3%
10.5%R304.00R213.00R247.446
Mar ’24R223.37
R259.71
+16.3%
13.6%R322.00R213.00R259.157
Feb ’24R232.12
R260.14
+12.1%
13.7%R322.00R213.00R272.717
Jan ’24R226.00
R261.57
+15.7%
13.3%R322.00R213.00R275.057
Dec ’23R240.00
R259.71
+8.2%
13.0%R322.00R213.00R253.017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 16:38
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Shoprite Holdings Ltd is covered by 21 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Darren CohnAbsa Bank Limited
Daniel DiasArqaam Capital Research Offshore S.A.L.
Michael de NobregaAvior Capital Markets