- South Africa
- Consumer Durables
Balwin Properties (JSE:BWN) stock falls 20% in past week as five-year earnings and shareholder returns continue downward trend
Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Balwin Properties Limited (JSE:BWN) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 59% over a half decade.
Since Balwin Properties has shed R293m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
See our latest analysis for Balwin Properties
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Balwin Properties' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 8.3% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 16% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 2.79.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Balwin Properties has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Balwin Properties' TSR for the last 5 years was -43%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
The total return of 9.9% received by Balwin Properties shareholders over the last year isn't far from the market return of -9.2%. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 7% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. It could well be that the business has begun to stabilize, although we'd be hesitant to buy without clear information suggesting the company will grow. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Balwin Properties better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Balwin Properties (at least 2 which are significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
We will like Balwin Properties better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on South African exchanges.
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Find out whether Balwin Properties is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.View the Free Analysis
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Balwin Properties Limited develops and sells residential properties in South Africa.
Proven track record with mediocre balance sheet.