Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Bell Equipment Limited (JSE:BEL) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Bell Equipment
What Is Bell Equipment's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Bell Equipment had R1.23b of debt at December 2020, down from R1.94b a year prior. However, it does have R82.8m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about R1.15b.
How Strong Is Bell Equipment's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Bell Equipment had liabilities of R2.38b due within 12 months, and liabilities of R759.3m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of R82.8m and R1.08b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by R1.97b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the R937.2m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Bell Equipment would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 0.35 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.5 hit our confidence in Bell Equipment like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Worse, Bell Equipment's EBIT was down 84% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Bell Equipment will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Bell Equipment saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Bell Equipment's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And even its interest cover fails to inspire much confidence. It looks to us like Bell Equipment carries a significant balance sheet burden. If you play with fire you risk getting burnt, so we'd probably give this stock a wide berth. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Bell Equipment (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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About JSE:BEL
Bell Equipment
Manufactures, distributes, and supports a range of materials handling equipment in South Africa, Europe, Rest of Africa, and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet and good value.