Barloworld (JSE:BAW) sheds 13% this week, as yearly returns fall more in line with earnings growth

The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term Barloworld Limited (JSE:BAW) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 30% over a half decade. Even worse, it's down 13% in about a month, which isn't fun at all.

With the stock having lost 13% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

View our latest analysis for Barloworld

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Barloworld became profitable within the last five years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It could be that the revenue decline of 6.7% per year is viewed as evidence that Barloworld is shrinking. With dividends up, but revenue down, some investors might be concluding that the company is no longer growing.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Barloworld the TSR over the last 5 years was 23%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Barloworld provided a TSR of 4.5% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 4% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Barloworld that you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on South African exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.