Barloworld Limited

JSE:BAW Stock Report

Market Cap: R22.1b

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Barloworld Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Barloworld is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 26.2% and 10.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 25.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 14% in 3 years.

Key information

26.2%

Earnings growth rate

25.86%

EPS growth rate

Trade Distributors earnings growth12.2%
Revenue growth rate10.3%
Future return on equity14.00%
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated17 Jan 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Nov 23

Earnings Update: Barloworld Limited (JSE:BAW) Just Reported Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Barloworld Limited ( JSE:BAW ) filed its annual result this time last week. The...

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jan 12

BAW: Takeover Progress And Earnings Outlook Will Shape Steady Future Prospects

Analysts have kept their fair value estimate for Barloworld steady at R113.50 per share, with only minor tweaks to assumptions such as the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E informing the latest price target update. What's in the News Masego Le Katlego (Pty) Ltd and Gulf Falcon Holding Limited completed the acquisition of an additional 76.69% stake in Barloworld for ZAR 17.6b, bringing their holding to 97.6% of the offer shares.
Narrative Update • Dec 20

BAW: Earnings Outlook And Finance Leadership Transition Will Shape Fairly Balanced Prospects

Analysts have modestly revised their price target on Barloworld to ZAR 113.50, reflecting slightly improved discount rate assumptions and stable long term expectations for revenue growth, profitability, and valuation multiples. What's in the News Issued earnings guidance for the twelve months ending September 30, 2025, with expected basic EPS of 767.3 to 787.0 cents and basic HEPS of 794.5 to 814.5 cents (company guidance) Announced the planned retirement of Group Finance Director Ms. Nopasika Vuyelwa Lila on 31 November 2025 and the appointment of Ms. Relebohile Mosaletseng Sehoole as incoming Group Finance Director from 1 December 2025 (company announcement) Removed as a constituent of the S and P Global BMI Index, which may affect passive investor ownership and trading liquidity (index update) Valuation Changes Consensus analyst price target remained unchanged at ZAR 113.50, indicating no revision to the estimated fair value of the shares.
Narrative Update • Dec 06

BAW: Earnings Outlook And Leadership Changes Will Shape Fairly Balanced Prospects

Analysts have raised their price target for Barloworld from approximately R108.67 to R113.50, citing stronger expected revenue growth, improved profit margins and a lower anticipated future price to earnings multiple as key drivers of the upgrade. What's in the News Issued earnings guidance for the twelve months ending September 30, 2025, with expected Basic EPS of 767.3 to 787.0 cents and Basic HEPS of 794.5 to 814.5 cents (company guidance) Announced the retirement of Group Finance Director Nopasika Vuyelwa Lila effective November 31, 2025, following a tenure that began in 2019 (company announcement) Appointed Relebohile Mosaletseng Sehoole as incoming Group Finance Director from December 1, 2025, drawing on her decade of experience within Barloworld and prior senior finance roles (company announcement) Removed from the S&P Global BMI Index, which may affect passive fund ownership and index-linked demand for the share (index announcement) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate increased moderately from ZAR 108.67 to ZAR 113.50 per share, reflecting higher expected earnings and cash flows Discount Rate edged up slightly from 21.02% to 21.29%, indicating a marginally higher required return for equity investors Revenue Growth was raised significantly from 2.78% to 6.95% per year, signalling stronger top line expectations over the forecast period Net Profit Margin improved from 5.71% to 7.02%, pointing to better projected operating efficiency and profitability Future P/E was reduced from 13.42x to 11.82x, suggesting the higher valuation is supported by stronger earnings rather than multiple expansion
Narrative Update • Aug 08

Expanding Infrastructure And Green Investments Will Drive Opportunity

The upward revision in Barloworld’s consensus price target to ZAR111.50 primarily reflects a higher future P/E multiple, signaling increased optimism on earnings prospects, while the discount rate remained largely unchanged. What's in the News Barloworld received an extended deadline from the U.S. Department of Commerce to submit a final report on voluntary disclosure of apparent export control violations, with the investigation ongoing.
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New Narrative • Feb 17

Debt Reduction And Efficiency Focus Will Stabilize Future Earnings

Reducing interest-bearing obligations and optimizing equipment segments are key to improving net margins and stabilizing earnings.
Analysis Article • Dec 12

What Barloworld Limited's (JSE:BAW) 30% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Barloworld Limited ( JSE:BAW ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 30% after a shaky period beforehand...
Analysis Article • Nov 28

Barloworld (JSE:BAW) Is Increasing Its Dividend To ZAR3.10

Barloworld Limited ( JSE:BAW ) will increase its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 6th of January to...
Analysis Article • Jul 22

Barloworld (JSE:BAW) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Analysis Article • Jun 03

Barloworld's (JSE:BAW) Soft Earnings Don't Show The Whole Picture

Soft earnings didn't appear to concern Barloworld Limited's ( JSE:BAW ) shareholders over the last week. Our analysis...
Analysis Article • Apr 26

Barloworld Limited's (JSE:BAW) Shares Climb 44% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Barloworld Limited ( JSE:BAW ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting...
Analysis Article • Mar 12

Barloworld Limited's (JSE:BAW) Earnings Are Not Doing Enough For Some Investors

When close to half the companies in South Africa have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 9x, you may consider...
Analysis Article • Feb 10

Increases to Barloworld Limited's (JSE:BAW) CEO Compensation Might Cool off for now

Key Insights Barloworld to hold its Annual General Meeting on 16th of February Salary of R11.2m is part of CEO Dominic...
Analysis Article • Nov 23

Earnings Update: Barloworld Limited (JSE:BAW) Just Reported Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Barloworld Limited ( JSE:BAW ) filed its annual result this time last week. The...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

JSE:BAW - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (ZAR Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
9/30/202746,4192,5652,1212,6691
9/30/202643,1262,3901,7702,3181
9/30/202537,7111,4461,6952,376N/A
6/30/202539,2531,5746561,367N/A
3/31/202540,7951,701-384358N/A
12/31/202441,3521,801102833N/A
9/30/202441,9081,9005871,308N/A
3/31/202443,4331,8524,9355,592N/A
12/31/202344,2311,9163,7434,454N/A
9/30/202345,0281,9792,5503,316N/A
3/31/202341,7532,432-774-65N/A
12/31/202240,5681,812258914N/A
9/30/202239,3831,1921,2891,893N/A
6/30/202243,5791,802N/AN/AN/A
3/31/202236,3301,457189819N/A
12/31/202135,2271,8013,0323,633N/A
9/30/202134,1232,1445,8746,446N/A
6/30/202134,8711,182N/AN/AN/A
3/31/202132,203-1057,9348,597N/A
12/31/202033,056-1,0835,4286,069N/A
9/30/202033,909-2,0612,9213,541N/A
6/30/202041,644-880N/AN/AN/A
3/31/202049,3793012,1742,919N/A
12/31/201954,7931,3482,5473,315N/A
9/30/201960,2062,3952,9203,711N/A
6/30/201960,7522,153N/A3,704N/A
3/31/201961,2971,911N/A3,697N/A
12/31/201862,3592,055N/A2,699N/A
9/30/201863,4202,199N/A1,700N/A
3/31/201862,2052,059N/A1,441N/A
12/31/201762,0821,986N/A2,588N/A
9/30/201761,9591,912N/A3,734N/A
3/31/201760,7311,876N/A4,538N/A
12/31/201661,4031,865N/A5,127N/A
9/30/201662,0741,854N/A5,715N/A
6/30/201665,2731,814N/A4,765N/A
3/31/201663,9991,745N/A3,271N/A
12/31/201563,3601,729N/A1,224N/A
9/30/201562,7201,713N/A-824N/A
6/30/201562,8011,778N/A-63N/A
3/31/201562,8821,843N/A757N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BAW's forecast earnings growth (26.2% per year) is above the savings rate (9.8%).

Earnings vs Market: BAW's earnings (26.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the ZA market (20.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BAW's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BAW's revenue (10.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the ZA market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BAW's revenue (10.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BAW's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/28 07:27
End of Day Share Price 2025/11/28 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2025/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Barloworld Limited is covered by 7 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Peter Mark HodgsonAvior Capital Markets
Kenneth HearnBarclays
Paul Henri SteegersBofA Global Research