Barloworld Valuation

Is BAW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • PM vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BAW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BAW (ZAR70.22) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR45.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BAW is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAW?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BAW key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4x
PEG Ratio3.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BAW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BAW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.5x
HDC Hudaco Industries
7.7x11.4%R4.7b
IVT Invicta Holdings
5.2xn/aR2.6b
ENX enX Group
10xn/aR1.6b
MMP Marshall Monteagle
15.3xn/aR1.0b
BAW Barloworld
6.7x1.7%R13.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the peer average (9.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BAW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Trade Distributors Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.0%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.0%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the Global Trade Distributors industry average (14x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BAW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BAW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.7x
Fair PE Ratio7.7x

PM vs Fair Ratio: BAW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BAW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR70.22
R91.00
+29.6%
12.5%R106.00R72.00n/a5
Feb ’25R74.57
R93.40
+25.3%
14.3%R108.00R72.00n/a5
Jan ’25R79.00
R93.40
+18.2%
14.3%R108.00R72.00n/a5
Dec ’24R76.31
R93.40
+22.4%
14.3%R108.00R72.00n/a5
Nov ’24R77.93
R95.60
+22.7%
7.7%R106.00R84.00n/a5
Oct ’24R86.84
R95.60
+10.1%
7.7%R106.00R84.00n/a5
Sep ’24R86.11
R97.40
+13.1%
9.3%R109.00R84.00n/a5
Aug ’24R84.76
R97.40
+14.9%
9.3%R109.00R84.00n/a5
Jul ’24R85.49
R95.25
+11.4%
9.4%R109.00R84.00n/a4
Jun ’24R83.06
R95.25
+14.7%
9.4%R109.00R84.00n/a4
May ’24R90.59
R92.00
+1.6%
8.9%R99.00R78.00n/a4
Apr ’24R89.31
R90.50
+1.3%
8.1%R96.00R78.00n/a4
Mar ’24R96.24
R90.50
-6.0%
8.1%R96.00R78.00n/a4
Feb ’24R89.81
R84.92
-5.4%
10.9%R95.00R73.68R74.574
Jan ’24R84.75
R86.23
+1.7%
10.6%R95.00R73.68R79.003
Dec ’23R102.73
R104.17
+1.4%
10.8%R117.50R90.00R76.313
Nov ’23R105.43
R107.00
+1.5%
9.3%R120.00R96.00R77.933
Oct ’23R92.27
R108.25
+17.3%
8.2%R120.00R96.00R86.844
Sep ’23R87.00
R114.25
+31.3%
5.5%R120.00R105.00R86.114
Aug ’23R92.70
R114.25
+23.2%
5.5%R120.00R105.00R84.764
Jul ’23R88.14
R114.25
+29.6%
5.5%R120.00R105.00R85.494
Jun ’23R97.60
R118.20
+21.1%
2.6%R120.00R112.00R83.065
May ’23R114.66
R134.20
+17.0%
12.0%R160.00R120.00R90.595
Apr ’23R116.00
R143.25
+23.5%
10.1%R160.00R120.00R89.314
Mar ’23R114.73
R154.40
+34.6%
13.4%R175.00R118.00R96.245
Feb ’23R133.77
R154.40
+15.4%
13.4%R175.00R118.00R89.815

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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