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Earnings grew faster than the respectable 10% CAGR delivered to Sempra Energy (NYSE:SRE) shareholders over the last five years
The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Sempra Energy (NYSE:SRE) share price is up 40% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. But if you include dividends then the return is market-beating. Unfortunately the share price is down 8.1% in the last year.
While the stock has fallen 4.0% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
View our latest analysis for Sempra Energy
SWOT Analysis for Sempra Energy
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Integrated Utilities market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Sempra Energy achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 71% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 7% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Sempra Energy has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Sempra Energy, it has a TSR of 64% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Sempra Energy shareholders are down 5.3% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 6.9%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 10%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Sempra Energy (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:SRE
Sempra
Operates as an energy infrastructure company in the United States and internationally.
Average dividend payer and fair value.
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