Earnings Miss: Exelon Corporation Missed EPS By 5.8% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from Exelon Corporation (NASDAQ:EXC), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Exelon beat revenue expectations by 7.5%, at US$6.0b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.66, some 5.8% short of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Exelon after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Exelon

After the latest results, the consensus from Exelon's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$21.7b in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 2.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 5.6% to US$2.45. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$21.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.45 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$39.07, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Exelon, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$42.00 and the most bearish at US$37.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would also point out that the forecast 3.0% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 15% annually over the past five years Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 3.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Exelon to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Exelon analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Exelon you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.