China Southern Airlines Company Limited

OTCPK:CHKI.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$13.3b

China Southern Airlines Valuation

Is CHKI.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CHKI.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$0.13
Fair Value
234.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: CHKI.F ($0.44) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($0.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CHKI.F is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CHKI.F?

Key metric: As CHKI.F is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for CHKI.F. This is calculated by dividing CHKI.F's market cap by their current revenue.
What is CHKI.F's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesCN¥173.03b
Market CapCN¥95.65b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does CHKI.F's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for CHKI.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.4x
LUV Southwest Airlines
0.7x5.11%US$18.6b
UAL United Airlines Holdings
0.4x4.62%US$25.5b
AAL American Airlines Group
0.1x4.20%US$7.8b
ALK Alaska Air Group
0.5x8.67%US$6.5b
CHKI.F China Southern Airlines
0.3x5.88%US$103.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CHKI.F is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does CHKI.F's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Airlines Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TAWN.F Thai Airways International
0.05xn/aUS$285.86m
FLYY Spirit Aviation Holdings
0.02xn/aUS$93.83m
SAVE.Q Spirit Airlines
0.01x2.70%US$50.71m
MESA Mesa Air Group
0.09xn/aUS$43.81m
CHKI.F 0.3xIndustry Avg. 0.5xNo. of Companies8PS00.40.81.21.62+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CHKI.F is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the North American Airlines industry average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CHKI.F's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CHKI.F PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CHKI.F's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CHKI.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$0.44
US$0.49
+10.36%
20.56%US$0.65US$0.31n/a10
May ’26US$0.46
US$0.49
+5.94%
20.97%US$0.64US$0.31n/a10
Apr ’26US$0.47
US$0.56
+18.89%
18.89%US$0.76US$0.42n/a9
Mar ’26US$0.42
US$0.52
+24.36%
22.85%US$0.77US$0.39n/a9
Feb ’26US$0.46
US$0.52
+12.33%
22.84%US$0.77US$0.39n/a9
Jan ’26US$0.55
US$0.44
-20.75%
17.79%US$0.59US$0.35n/a9
Dec ’25US$0.45
US$0.43
-3.93%
17.84%US$0.59US$0.35n/a10
Nov ’25US$0.40
US$0.42
+6.67%
16.89%US$0.57US$0.36n/a10
Oct ’25US$0.44
US$0.42
-5.35%
14.57%US$0.53US$0.35n/a10
Sep ’25US$0.39
US$0.47
+21.84%
17.66%US$0.60US$0.35n/a11
Aug ’25n/a
US$0.47
0%
17.91%US$0.59US$0.34n/a11
Jul ’25n/a
US$0.47
0%
17.30%US$0.59US$0.34n/a11
Jun ’25US$0.42
US$0.50
+19.35%
18.75%US$0.64US$0.34n/a11
May ’25US$0.34
US$0.50
+48.77%
19.23%US$0.64US$0.34US$0.4611
Apr ’25US$0.33
US$0.51
+58.29%
17.83%US$0.64US$0.39US$0.4712
Mar ’25US$0.39
US$0.55
+40.72%
18.58%US$0.74US$0.40US$0.4212
Feb ’25US$0.37
US$0.56
+50.23%
17.60%US$0.75US$0.40US$0.4612
Jan ’25US$0.46
US$0.61
+33.02%
15.09%US$0.75US$0.45US$0.5512
Dec ’24US$0.44
US$0.61
+37.90%
13.03%US$0.74US$0.45US$0.4513
Nov ’24US$0.47
US$0.61
+29.90%
14.68%US$0.76US$0.44US$0.4013
Oct ’24US$0.47
US$0.65
+36.97%
16.92%US$0.93US$0.47US$0.4414
Sep ’24US$0.53
US$0.67
+27.12%
15.97%US$0.93US$0.47US$0.3915
Aug ’24US$0.60
US$0.68
+13.72%
16.32%US$0.94US$0.47n/a15
Jul ’24US$0.53
US$0.69
+30.62%
17.22%US$0.94US$0.47n/a15
Jun ’24US$0.57
US$0.72
+26.96%
16.45%US$0.96US$0.56US$0.4215
May ’24US$0.69
US$0.73
+6.43%
17.68%US$0.98US$0.51US$0.3415
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts
US$0.47
Fair Value
6.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/19 20:06
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/14 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

China Southern Airlines Company Limited is covered by 62 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Zaixian ShuaiAvic Securities Co., Ltd
Patrick XuBarclays
Adam ClarkBear Stearns Companies Inc.