China Southern Airlines Company Limited

OTCPK:CHKI.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$14.9b

China Southern Airlines Valuation

Is CHKI.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CHKI.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CHKI.F ($0.46) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($0.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CHKI.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CHKI.F?

Key metric: As CHKI.F is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for CHKI.F. This is calculated by dividing CHKI.F's market cap by their current revenue.
What is CHKI.F's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.4x
SalesCN¥175.10b
Market CapCN¥107.84b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does CHKI.F's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for CHKI.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
LUV Southwest Airlines
0.7x4.4%US$19.2b
AAL American Airlines Group
0.2x4.3%US$9.6b
UAL United Airlines Holdings
0.6x5.2%US$31.7b
ALK Alaska Air Group
0.6x15.1%US$6.7b
CHKI.F China Southern Airlines
0.4x6.0%US$115.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CHKI.F is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does CHKI.F's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Airlines Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SAVE.Q Spirit Airlines
0.01x3.9%US$74.26m
MESA Mesa Air Group
0.1xn/aUS$42.14m
TAWN.F Thai Airways International
0.004xn/aUS$18.55m
SOAR Volato Group
0.08xn/aUS$8.74m
CHKI.F 0.4xIndustry Avg. 0.6xNo. of Companies7PS00.40.81.21.62+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CHKI.F is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the North American Airlines industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CHKI.F's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CHKI.F PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.4x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CHKI.F's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CHKI.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$0.46
US$0.43
-6.3%
15.3%US$0.57US$0.36n/a10
Nov ’25US$0.40
US$0.42
+6.7%
16.9%US$0.57US$0.36n/a10
Oct ’25US$0.44
US$0.42
-5.4%
14.6%US$0.53US$0.35n/a10
Sep ’25US$0.39
US$0.47
+21.8%
17.7%US$0.60US$0.35n/a11
Aug ’25n/a
US$0.47
0%
17.9%US$0.59US$0.34n/a11
Jul ’25n/a
US$0.47
0%
17.3%US$0.59US$0.34n/a11
Jun ’25US$0.42
US$0.50
+19.3%
18.8%US$0.64US$0.34n/a11
May ’25US$0.34
US$0.50
+48.8%
19.2%US$0.64US$0.34n/a11
Apr ’25US$0.33
US$0.51
+58.3%
17.8%US$0.64US$0.39n/a12
Mar ’25US$0.39
US$0.55
+40.7%
18.6%US$0.74US$0.40n/a12
Feb ’25US$0.37
US$0.56
+50.2%
17.6%US$0.75US$0.40n/a12
Jan ’25US$0.46
US$0.61
+33.0%
15.1%US$0.75US$0.45n/a12
Dec ’24US$0.44
US$0.61
+37.9%
13.0%US$0.74US$0.45n/a13
Nov ’24US$0.47
US$0.61
+29.9%
14.7%US$0.76US$0.44US$0.4013
Oct ’24US$0.47
US$0.65
+37.0%
16.9%US$0.93US$0.47US$0.4414
Sep ’24US$0.53
US$0.67
+27.1%
16.0%US$0.93US$0.47US$0.3915
Aug ’24US$0.60
US$0.68
+13.7%
16.3%US$0.94US$0.47n/a15
Jul ’24US$0.53
US$0.69
+30.6%
17.2%US$0.94US$0.47n/a15
Jun ’24US$0.57
US$0.72
+27.0%
16.5%US$0.96US$0.56US$0.4215
May ’24US$0.69
US$0.73
+6.4%
17.7%US$0.98US$0.51US$0.3415
Apr ’24US$0.70
US$0.73
+4.3%
19.1%US$0.98US$0.51US$0.3314
Mar ’24US$0.71
US$0.73
+2.7%
18.8%US$0.99US$0.51US$0.3914
Feb ’24US$0.66
US$0.71
+7.9%
16.2%US$0.91US$0.52US$0.3713
Jan ’24US$0.63
US$0.63
-0.01%
20.4%US$0.88US$0.42US$0.4613
Dec ’23US$0.58
US$0.57
-1.5%
17.3%US$0.72US$0.41US$0.4413
Nov ’23US$0.53
US$0.56
+6.8%
16.8%US$0.69US$0.40US$0.4713

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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