Did ZTO Express's (ZTO) Removal from Morgan Stanley's Focus List Just Shift Its Investment Narrative?

• ZTO Express (Cayman) was recently removed from Morgan Stanley's China and Hong Kong focus list, following the broker's decision to emphasize other companies expected to deliver stronger growth in the near term.
• This move coincides with upcoming financial announcements and a repurchase right notification for holders of the company's US$1 billion in convertible senior notes, adding layers of attention and complexity for market participants in August 2025.
• We'll examine how being removed from a major broker's focus list could sway investor sentiment and affect ZTO Express's investment narrative.

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ZTO Express (Cayman) Investment Narrative Recap

To own shares in ZTO Express (Cayman), you need to believe in the long-term growth of Chinese e-commerce and the company’s ability to deliver steady parcel volume expansion profitably, despite fierce price competition. The recent removal from Morgan Stanley's China and Hong Kong focus list may not significantly affect ZTO’s most important short-term catalyst, upcoming financial results and parcel growth guidance, which remain in focus as drivers for sentiment and price action, though price pressures persist as a key risk.

The most relevant announcement is ZTO’s upcoming unaudited financial results for the second quarter and half year of 2025, with special investor attention on whether the company continues to hit its robust 20-24% year-on-year parcel growth guidance. This event comes as investors weigh both operational progress and broader market signals after the index change, framing the next few weeks as critical for the company’s narrative on growth and resilience.

However, against this backdrop, a less obvious but equally important risk investors should be aware of involves...

Read the full narrative on ZTO Express (Cayman) (it's free!)

ZTO Express (Cayman)'s outlook anticipates CN¥62.9 billion in revenue and CN¥11.9 billion in earnings by 2028. This projection is based on an annual revenue growth rate of 11.6% and reflects an earnings increase of CN¥2.5 billion from current earnings of CN¥9.4 billion.

Uncover how ZTO Express (Cayman)'s forecasts yield a $22.55 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four individual fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$20 to US$51,187.59 per share. With price competition still highlighted as a risk, your views on future margin pressures can have a direct impact on your own fair value assessment, so explore all viewpoints before making a decision.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on ZTO Express (Cayman) - why the stock might be worth just $20.00!

Build Your Own ZTO Express (Cayman) Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your ZTO Express (Cayman) research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free ZTO Express (Cayman) research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate ZTO Express (Cayman)'s overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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