Full Truck Alliance (YMM) Guides Lower on Q4 Revenue – What Does This Mean for Its Growth Mix?

• Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. recently reported third quarter 2025 results, with sales rising to CNY 3.36 billion and net income reaching CNY 907.28 million, while the company also issued fourth quarter revenue guidance anticipating total net revenues between RMB 3.08 billion and RMB 3.18 billion.
• The company’s outlook highlighted ongoing growth in net revenues from business lines excluding freight brokerage services, projecting year-over-year increases despite a modest dip in total expected revenues for the upcoming quarter.
• With third quarter sales growth and updated segment revenue expectations, we'll now assess how these developments may influence Full Truck Alliance's investment outlook.

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Full Truck Alliance Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Full Truck Alliance, one must be confident in the rapid digitization of logistics in China and the company's continued ability to grow platform volumes while managing challenges in its freight brokerage segment. The recent Q3 results support ongoing momentum in non-brokerage business lines, but the modest Q4 revenue guidance suggests that expected short-term catalysts tied to total revenue growth are not materially strengthened; overall, the latest updates do not fundamentally alter the company's biggest current risk: pressure on freight brokerage margins and transaction volumes. Among recent announcements, the company’s fourth quarter guidance stands out, projecting robust year-over-year net revenue growth, 17.1% to 22.5%, for business lines excluding freight brokerage. This supports the view that the shift to diversified digital services and value-added offerings could be key to offsetting risks in more mature or regulated segments. However, it is worth noting that on the other hand, investors should be aware of ongoing pressure on freight brokerage revenue and the impact of fee changes as...

Read the full narrative on Full Truck Alliance (it's free!)

Full Truck Alliance's outlook projects CN¥18.1 billion in revenue and CN¥8.7 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires a 14.2% annual revenue growth rate and a CN¥4.5 billion increase in earnings from the current CN¥4.2 billion.

Uncover how Full Truck Alliance's forecasts yield a $14.52 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community estimated fair values from CN¥13.09 to CN¥35.32 per share, showing a wide range of expectations. While some see significant potential, ongoing concerns about rising costs for user acquisition may affect how quickly operating margins improve.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Full Truck Alliance - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Full Truck Alliance Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Full Truck Alliance research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Full Truck Alliance research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Full Truck Alliance's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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