Some Confidence Is Lacking In United Parcel Service, Inc.'s (NYSE:UPS) P/E

It's not a stretch to say that United Parcel Service, Inc.'s (NYSE:UPS) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.8x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

United Parcel Service hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn around. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

United Parcel Service's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 22% decrease to the company's bottom line. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 89% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 2.4% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 13% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's curious that United Parcel Service's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that United Parcel Service currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for United Parcel Service that we have uncovered.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.