Is Uber Stock Still a Bargain as Non-Restaurant Delivery Bookings Surge in 2025?

Thinking about what to do with Uber Technologies stock? You are definitely not alone. Whether you got in a couple years ago and have enjoyed the stock's 225.0% three-year surge, or you are watching its 52.9% gain so far this year, Uber's trajectory has investors buzzing. At Friday's close of $96.61, the stock has been on quite a ride, with even the past month turning in a strong 4.1% return as the market digests both opportunities and challenges facing the company.

Some of the optimism is fueled by Uber's growth beyond ride-sharing. Recently, the company announced it expects non-restaurant delivery bookings to hit a $12.5 billion annual run rate by the end of 2025, a 25% jump from just a few months ago. On the flip side, regulatory overhangs and rival moves still stir volatility, as seen with new lawsuits and fresh competition in the autonomous vehicle space. But stepping back, the market seems to be giving Uber increasing credit for its resilience and ability to seize emerging trends. This is one reason its one-year return stands at 32.5% despite short-term headlines siphoning off 1.0% over the last week.

But is Uber still undervalued after this hot streak? According to our six-point valuation check, Uber nails 5 out of 6, putting its value score at 5, which is impressive by any standard. In the next section, we will dig into how each technique assesses Uber's worth, and why there may be an even better way to evaluate what the market is missing.

Uber Technologies delivered 32.5% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Transportation industry.

Approach 1: Uber Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows, then discounting those figures to a single present-day value. In Uber Technologies' case, the model starts with the company’s current Free Cash Flow of $8.5 Billion (as of the last twelve months), projecting growth based on both analyst estimates and longer-term forecasts.

According to analyst and internal projections, Uber’s Free Cash Flow is expected to reach $16.2 Billion by 2029, indicating strong anticipated growth over the coming years. The ten-year projections continue past analyst coverage, with Simply Wall St’s methodology carrying the estimates further out. All values remain in US dollars.

The outcome of this DCF assessment is an intrinsic value of $159.82 per share. With the stock currently trading at $96.61, this represents an implied intrinsic discount of 39.5%. In practical terms, the DCF suggests Uber Technologies may be deeply undervalued relative to its potential future cash generation.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Uber Technologies.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Uber Technologies is undervalued by 39.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Uber Technologies Price vs Earnings (P/E)

The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is a widely used valuation tool for profitable companies because it allows investors to gauge how much they are paying for each dollar of current earnings. A lower P/E can signal a bargain if the company is growing or has minimal risks, while a higher P/E may be justified for faster-growing businesses or those with a robust competitive edge.

“Fair” P/E ratios vary depending on growth rates and risk. Companies with higher earnings growth and lower risk tend to warrant a higher multiple, while mature or riskier firms generally trade at a discount. For Uber Technologies, the current P/E ratio is 16.0x. In comparison, the average for the transportation industry stands higher at 23.9x and top peers are even loftier with an average of 40.3x. At first glance, Uber’s multiple seems conservative relative to its sector.

This is where Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio comes into play. The Fair Ratio, calculated at 16.8x for Uber, reflects not just industry and peer comparisons but also Uber’s own growth outlook, profit margins, company size, and specific risk profile. This provides a more nuanced benchmark than simply comparing averages, as it adjusts for the elements that actually drive sustainable value. With Uber’s P/E ratio of 16.0x sitting just below its Fair Ratio, the stock appears to be valued about right based on these fundamentals.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Uber Technologies Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your personal story behind the numbers. It expresses your view of what Uber Technologies is worth, based on your own forecasts for revenue, earnings, and margins. It brings the company’s journey and your beliefs together: you create a financial forecast, arrive at an estimated fair value, and see how that compares to the stock’s current price.

Narratives are dynamic, easy to create and update, and available to all users on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share and refine their perspectives. They empower you to make informed buy or sell decisions by comparing your Fair Value to today’s Price, and they automatically update when new news, financials, or earnings come in. This means your view can always reflect the latest information.

For example, on Uber Technologies, some investors believe the fair value is as high as $135 per share, highlighting Uber’s massive long-term potential, while others see a much lower fair value of $75, focusing on competition and current valuation premiums. Narratives make it clear that different perspectives are not only valid, but essential when investing. Now you can easily build and track your own.

For Uber Technologies, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Uber Technologies Narratives:

🐂 Uber Technologies Bull Case

Fair Value: $107.62

Undervalued by: 10.2%

Revenue Growth Rate: 14.6%

• Continued user growth, greater product integration, and targeted promotions are driving revenue diversification and improving retention rates.
• Heavy investment in autonomous vehicles, electrification, and higher-margin products is expected to enhance long-term profitability, but introduces risks around capital intensity and execution.
• Analysts’ fair value targets ($107.62 median, with a range from $82 to $150) reflect high expected earnings but depend on Uber achieving ambitious growth and margin targets amid competition and regulatory uncertainty.

🐻 Uber Technologies Bear Case

Fair Value: $75.00

Overvalued by: 28.8%

Revenue Growth Rate: 4.2%

• Uber has delivered strong revenue growth (14% YoY), sustainable profitability, and exceptional free cash flow, marking a notable turnaround.
• Despite operational improvements and a solid balance sheet, the current market valuation ($192B) is well above fair value estimates, offering no margin of safety for new investors.
• Target entry price is $65 to $75 per share. Upside is limited at current prices given consensus market cap projections and lower future growth assumptions.

Do you think there's more to the story for Uber Technologies? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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