While Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the NYSE, rising to highs of US$56.34 and falling to the lows of US$42.09. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Alaska Air Group's current trading price of US$46.08 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Alaska Air Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
Check out our latest analysis for Alaska Air Group
Is Alaska Air Group Still Cheap?
Alaska Air Group appears to be expensive according to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 36.64x is currently well-above the industry average of 11.78x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Alaska Air Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from Alaska Air Group?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Alaska Air Group's earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? ALK’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe ALK should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on ALK for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for ALK, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Alaska Air Group (1 is potentially serious) you should be familiar with.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:ALK
Reasonable growth potential with proven track record.
