Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ULCC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$927.2m

Frontier Group Holdings Valuation

Is ULCC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ULCC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ULCC's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ULCC's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ULCC?

Key metric: As ULCC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ULCC. This is calculated by dividing ULCC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ULCC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.7x
EarningsUS$84.00m
Market CapUS$927.17m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ULCC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ULCC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.1x
SNCY Sun Country Airlines Holdings
10.3x33.2%US$611.9m
SKYW SkyWest
10.6x8.5%US$3.4b
CPA Copa Holdings
5.7x8.8%US$3.7b
ALK Alaska Air Group
13.8x34.1%US$6.2b
ULCC Frontier Group Holdings
9.7x38.3%US$927.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ULCC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the peer average (10.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ULCC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ULCC 9.7xIndustry Avg. 8.5xNo. of Companies9PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ULCC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (8.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ULCC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ULCC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.7x
Fair PE Ratio13.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ULCC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ULCC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$3.57
US$6.43
+80.0%
40.8%US$10.00US$3.00n/a10
Apr ’26US$4.32
US$9.13
+111.2%
21.9%US$14.00US$7.00n/a10
Mar ’26US$7.20
US$9.90
+37.5%
18.9%US$14.00US$7.00n/a10
Feb ’26US$8.43
US$7.95
-5.7%
12.1%US$10.00US$7.00n/a10
Jan ’26US$7.11
US$6.77
-4.9%
23.2%US$10.00US$4.00n/a10
Dec ’25US$5.83
US$6.67
+14.3%
23.8%US$10.00US$4.00n/a10
Nov ’25US$5.97
US$6.27
+4.9%
19.5%US$8.00US$4.00n/a10
Oct ’25US$5.28
US$4.80
-9.1%
28.6%US$8.00US$3.00n/a9
Sep ’25US$3.63
US$4.56
+25.5%
34.1%US$8.00US$3.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$3.74
US$6.26
+67.4%
25.1%US$8.50US$4.00n/a9
Jul ’25US$4.77
US$7.50
+57.2%
11.9%US$9.00US$6.00n/a10
Jun ’25US$5.47
US$7.50
+37.1%
11.9%US$9.00US$6.00n/a10
May ’25US$5.84
US$7.95
+36.1%
7.1%US$9.00US$7.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$7.19
US$8.00
+11.3%
17.7%US$12.00US$7.00US$4.3210
Mar ’25US$6.89
US$7.90
+14.7%
18.3%US$12.00US$7.00US$7.2010
Feb ’25US$5.31
US$5.95
+12.1%
20.7%US$8.00US$4.75US$8.4310
Jan ’25US$5.46
US$6.11
+11.9%
32.1%US$10.00US$4.00US$7.1110
Dec ’24US$4.16
US$6.71
+61.3%
34.5%US$10.00US$4.00US$5.8310
Nov ’24US$3.23
US$7.93
+145.6%
37.1%US$15.00US$4.00US$5.9711
Oct ’24US$4.84
US$10.29
+112.6%
32.9%US$18.00US$5.50US$5.2812
Sep ’24US$6.30
US$12.08
+91.8%
23.5%US$18.00US$8.00US$3.6312
Aug ’24US$8.96
US$14.63
+63.2%
18.8%US$19.00US$10.00US$3.7412
Jul ’24US$9.67
US$14.79
+53.0%
18.3%US$19.00US$10.00US$4.7712
Jun ’24US$8.27
US$14.88
+79.9%
17.7%US$19.00US$10.00US$5.4712
May ’24US$9.60
US$16.73
+74.2%
15.7%US$20.00US$12.00US$5.8411
Apr ’24US$9.84
US$17.27
+75.5%
12.6%US$20.00US$13.00US$7.1911
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts
US$6.43
Fair Value
44.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/10 22:37
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/10 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brandon OglenskiBarclays
Brandon OglenskiBarclays
Andrew DidoraBofA Global Research