Frontier Group Holdings Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 0/6
Frontier Group Holdings has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 13.8%, while the Airlines industry saw earnings growing at 45.9% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 15.8% per year.
Key information
13.81%
Earnings growth rate
17.10%
EPS growth rate
| Airlines Industry Growth | 0.092% |
| Revenue growth rate | 15.82% |
| Return on equity | -164.86% |
| Net Margin | -9.62% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • 8h
Frontier Group: The Spirit Tailwind Does Not Fix The Structural Problems
Summary Frontier Group Holdings is rated sell due to persistent unprofitability despite favorable industry tailwinds and cost-saving initiatives. ULCC's Q1 revenue rose 9% YoY, but GAAP net loss reached $272 million, with adjusted metrics masking true economic challenges. Liquidity appears adequate short-term, but $6.27B in lease obligations and $10.75B in aircraft commitments create significant long-term risk. Valuation looks deceptively cheap; without proven free cash flow, equity remains highly speculative and exposed to operational leverage. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 05
ULCC: 2026 Capacity Discipline And Fuel Efficiency Will Support Repricing Potential
Narrative Update on Frontier Group Holdings Analysts have nudged the Frontier Group Holdings price target higher by $1 to $6, citing refreshed models after recent results and a focus on airlines that can sustain returns above their cost of capital and handle potential industry downturns. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Frontier Group Holdings has centered on refreshed models following the latest quarterly update and a reassessment of how the company might handle sector level volatility.
Narrative Update • May 19
ULCC: Fuel Costs And Capacity Shifts Will Shape Balanced Route Opportunity
Analyst price targets on Frontier Group Holdings have increased slightly to $5.00, up from $4.90, as analysts update their models following the Q1 report and incorporate revised assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Frontier Group Holdings reflect a mixed tone, with some analysts fine-tuning models after the Q1 report while others focus on execution risks and industry pressures.
Narrative Update • May 04
ULCC: Off Peak Capacity And Fuel Cost Risks Will Pressure Earnings
Analysts have reduced their average price target on Frontier Group Holdings by about $2 to $4, citing concerns around off-peak capacity growth, financial leverage, and fuel cost uncertainty, while demand trends are still described as solid. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Frontier Group Holdings has tilted more cautious, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and revisiting their ratings in light of capacity, leverage, and fuel cost concerns.Narrative Update • Apr 20
ULCC: Fuel Volatility And Capacity Plans Will Shape Balanced Future Risk Profile
Analysts have trimmed the fair value estimate for Frontier Group Holdings to $4.43 from $4.71, reflecting lower price targets around $4 from several firms as they factor in fuel cost uncertainty, capacity growth, and the stock's financial leverage. Analyst Commentary Recent research has centered on lower price targets around US$4 and a shift in ratings, as analysts reassess Frontier Group Holdings in light of fuel cost uncertainty, capacity plans, and balance sheet risk.Narrative Update • Apr 06
ULCC: Fuel Cost Uncertainty Will Shape Future Earnings Upside Potential
Analyst price targets for Frontier Group Holdings have shifted lower, with several firms trimming expectations toward the $4 range as they factor in fuel cost uncertainty, softer margin assumptions, higher projected revenue growth, and a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Frontier Group Holdings has turned more cautious, with multiple firms lowering price targets toward the US$4 range and shifting ratings toward Neutral or Underperform.Narrative Update • Mar 23
ULCC: Higher Future Multiple And Capacity Concerns Will Shape Earnings Path
The analyst price target for Frontier Group Holdings has been cut by $0.50 to $3.50, as analysts factor in recent downgrades, lower targets around $4, concerns over off peak capacity and financial leverage, and mixed views on future earnings strength that are reflected in a higher assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research has leaned cautious on Frontier Group Holdings, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets into a tighter band around $4 and shifting ratings lower.Narrative Update • Mar 08
ULCC: Constructive 2026 Backdrop And Capacity Discipline Will Drive Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Frontier Group Holdings slightly to $7.64 from $7.69, reflecting lower revenue growth assumptions, a modestly reduced discount rate, stronger projected profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple in light of recent price target cuts to $4 and $5 from several firms citing off peak capacity, leverage, and relative valuation concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Frontier Group has tilted cautious overall, with several firms cutting ratings and price targets on concerns about off peak capacity, financial leverage, and relative valuation.Narrative Update • Feb 22
ULCC: Elevated Multiple And Cautious Carrier Swap Will Limit Earnings Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target on Frontier Group Holdings to $5 from $4, reflecting updated assumptions for higher revenue growth and slightly stronger profit margins, while still flagging valuation concerns and mixed views across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Frontier Group Holdings shows a mix of views, with some firms lifting price targets while others turn more cautious on the stock's risk and reward profile.Narrative Update • Feb 08
ULCC: Elevated Multiple And Lower Margins Will Likely Cap Earnings Upside
Narrative Update on Frontier Group Holdings Frontier Group Holdings' consensus analyst price target has shifted to a range anchored around $4 to $5, as analysts weigh a more constructive sector backdrop, highlighted by some firms, against concerns from others about valuation and profit sustainability. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Frontier Group shows a split view, with some seeing a constructive setup for airlines over the coming years and others flagging valuation and earnings quality concerns.Narrative Update • Jan 24
ULCC: Constructive 2026 Backdrop And Brand Loyalty Will Drive Repricing
Narrative Update: Frontier Group Holdings Analysts have modestly adjusted their price expectations for Frontier Group Holdings, with model fair value edging from about US$7.78 to roughly US$7.69. This reflects updated views on revenue growth, profit margin and a lower forward P/E, informed by mixed recent research that includes a Susquehanna price target increase to US$5 and a BofA cut to US$4 alongside a downgrade to Underperform.Narrative Update • Jan 10
ULCC: Constructive 2026 Backdrop And Brand Loyalty Will Drive Repricing
Analysts have adjusted their view on Frontier Group Holdings, with price targets shifting in a tight US$4 to US$5 range. This reflects updated assumptions on fair value, revenue growth, margins and future P/E, as they weigh a more constructive backdrop for select low cost carriers against concerns about relative valuation and earnings quality.Narrative Update • Dec 26
ULCC: Technology Merchandising Gains Will Likely Leave Earnings Upside Limited
Analysts raised their price target on Frontier Group Holdings to $4.00 from $3.00, citing improved expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, supported by evolving, technology driven merchandising trends across the U.S. airline industry. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts acknowledge that Frontier's upgraded price target reflects some improvement in expected revenue growth and margin execution, but they continue to view the risk and reward profile as balanced rather than compelling.Narrative Update • Dec 12
ULCC: Rising Fuel And Competitive Pressures Will Constrain Option-Like Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on Frontier Group Holdings to $4 from $3, citing improving demand and fare trends, a more constructive view of the airline industry's technology-driven merchandising shift, and meaningful, though option-like, upside potential under more favorable external conditions. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a more balanced, risk aware view of Frontier Group Holdings despite the higher price targets.Analysis Article • Dec 03
There's Reason For Concern Over Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ULCC) Massive 29% Price Jump
Those holding Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded...Narrative Update • Nov 01
ULCC: Upcoming Route Expansion Will Drive Gains From Spirit Overlap
Analysts have raised their price targets for Frontier Group Holdings, with new estimates ranging from $4 to $8. They cite improving demand, fare trends, and potential network gains as key factors supporting the outlook.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Sun Belt Demand And Digital Efficiency Will Drive Air Trends
Analysts have increased their average price target for Frontier Group Holdings to reflect recent improvements in demand and fare trends. They have raised targets to as high as $8 from prior estimates around $3, supported by anticipated industry tailwinds and increased network overlap with competitors.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Sun Belt Demand And Digital Efficiency Will Drive Air Trends
Analysts have increased their price target for Frontier Group Holdings, with consensus fair value rising from $5.39 to $5.67 per share. They cite improved industry demand, fare trends, and Frontier’s strategic positioning following recent industry shifts.Narrative Update • Sep 03
Sun Belt Demand And Digital Efficiency Will Drive Air Trends
Analysts have raised Frontier Group Holdings’ price target from $4.72 to $5.39, driven by expectations that the company will benefit most from Spirit’s bankruptcy due to significant network overlap and proactive route expansion. Analyst Commentary Expectations that Frontier will be the primary beneficiary of Spirit's bankruptcy, due to extensive network overlap.Analysis Article • Jul 23
There's Reason For Concern Over Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ULCC) Massive 26% Price Jump
Despite an already strong run, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) shares have been powering on, with a gain...New Narrative • May 08
Network Optimization And Digital Upgrades Will Reshape Airline Travel
Network and capacity optimization is set to stabilize revenue, reduce costs, and positively impact net margins.Analysis Article • May 06
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report
It's been a pretty great week for Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) shareholders, with its shares surging...Analysis Article • Apr 23
Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) Shares Dive 42%
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) share price has dived 42% in the...Seeking Alpha • Apr 14
Frontier Airlines Stock Falls On Reduced Consumer Confidence Impact
Summary Frontier Airlines revised its Q1 2025 guidance, indicating a loss of $0.20 to $0.24 per share, and pulled its full-year guidance due to reduced consumer confidence. Ultra-low-cost carriers like Frontier face increased costs from pilot shortages, inflation, and higher maintenance costs, eroding their competitive edge against mainline carriers. Despite some upside potential, the high-cost basis and lower demand led me to assign a hold rating for ULCC stock with a $6.50 price target. The uncertain trade environment and weaker market demand make Frontier Airlines a speculative buy at best, with significant risks outweighing potential gains. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 09
Some Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) Shareholders Look For Exit As Shares Take 29% Pounding
The Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) share price has softened a substantial 29% over the previous 30 days...Seeking Alpha • Jan 05
Frontier Group: Taking Off Into Future Airline Travel Demand Growth
Summary Frontier Group Holdings, the parent of Frontier Airlines, gets a buy rating, agreeing with the Seeking Alpha quant system today. The greatest weight was given to future macro-level airline travel demand growth in the US. Though not a dividend payer yet, this airline presents a modest debt risk and is growing new routes and adding newer, fuel-efficient aircraft. Though Q3 returned to profitability, its negative profit margin lags behind peers and could be a future growth opportunity. Several Wall St firms this fall were neutral or positive on this stock, including Citi, UBS, and Raymond James. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 24
Subdued Growth No Barrier To Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) With Shares Advancing 27%
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Frontier Group Holdings makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 3,804 | -366 | 161 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 3,724 | -137 | 159 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 3,729 | -137 | 163 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 3,778 | -34 | 171 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 3,822 | 67 | 179 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 3,775 | 84 | 178 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 3,664 | -6 | 172 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 3,612 | -64 | 167 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 3,606 | -24 | 164 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 3,589 | -11 | 164 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 3,604 | 66 | 169 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 3,627 | 129 | 170 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 3,569 | 71 | 172 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 3,326 | -37 | 164 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 3,029 | -130 | 149 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 2,753 | -138 | 140 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 2,394 | -132 | 124 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 2,060 | -102 | 109 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 1,718 | -176 | 96 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 1,333 | -250 | 80 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 977 | -252 | 65 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 1,250 | -225 | 78 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 1,638 | -47 | 96 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 2,508 | 237 | 130 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 2,156 | 73 | 110 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 1,776 | 160 | 74 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 1,714 | 192 | 72 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 1,604 | 140 | 79 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: ULCC is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: ULCC is currently unprofitable.
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: ULCC is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 13.8% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare ULCC's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: ULCC is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Airlines industry (17.2%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: ULCC has a negative Return on Equity (-164.86%), as it is currently unprofitable.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/17 16:01 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/17 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Brandon Oglenski | Barclays |
| Andrew Didora | BofA Global Research |
| John Godyn | Citigroup Inc |