Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ULCC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.5b

Frontier Group Holdings Valuation

Is ULCC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ULCC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ULCC's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ULCC's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ULCC?

Key metric: As ULCC is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ULCC. This is calculated by dividing ULCC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ULCC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.4x
SalesUS$3.66b
Market CapUS$1.52b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ULCC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ULCC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
ALGT Allegiant Travel
0.6x10.4%US$1.5b
SNCY Sun Country Airlines Holdings
0.7x8.3%US$794.1m
JBLU JetBlue Airways
0.3x5.5%US$2.6b
UP Wheels Up Experience
1.5xn/aUS$1.3b
ULCC Frontier Group Holdings
0.4x12.6%US$1.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ULCC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ULCC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Airlines Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SAVE.Q Spirit Airlines
0.01x0.3%US$48.74m
MESA Mesa Air Group
0.1xn/aUS$46.68m
NOKP.F Nok Airlines
0.1xn/aUS$22.38m
TAWN.F Thai Airways International
0.004xn/aUS$21.83m
ULCC 0.4xIndustry Avg. 0.6xNo. of Companies7PS00.40.81.21.62+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ULCC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the North American Airlines industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ULCC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ULCC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.4x
Fair PS Ratio0.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ULCC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ULCC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$6.75
US$6.77
+0.2%
23.2%US$10.00US$4.00n/a10
Dec ’25US$5.83
US$6.67
+14.3%
23.8%US$10.00US$4.00n/a10
Nov ’25US$5.97
US$6.27
+4.9%
19.5%US$8.00US$4.00n/a10
Oct ’25US$5.28
US$4.80
-9.1%
28.6%US$8.00US$3.00n/a9
Sep ’25US$3.63
US$4.56
+25.5%
34.1%US$8.00US$3.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$3.74
US$6.26
+67.4%
25.1%US$8.50US$4.00n/a9
Jul ’25US$4.77
US$7.50
+57.2%
11.9%US$9.00US$6.00n/a10
Jun ’25US$5.47
US$7.50
+37.1%
11.9%US$9.00US$6.00n/a10
May ’25US$5.84
US$7.95
+36.1%
7.1%US$9.00US$7.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$7.19
US$8.00
+11.3%
17.7%US$12.00US$7.00n/a10
Mar ’25US$6.89
US$7.90
+14.7%
18.3%US$12.00US$7.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$5.31
US$5.95
+12.1%
20.7%US$8.00US$4.75n/a10
Jan ’25US$5.46
US$6.11
+11.9%
32.1%US$10.00US$4.00n/a10
Dec ’24US$4.16
US$6.71
+61.3%
34.5%US$10.00US$4.00US$5.8310
Nov ’24US$3.23
US$7.93
+145.6%
37.1%US$15.00US$4.00US$5.9711
Oct ’24US$4.84
US$10.29
+112.6%
32.9%US$18.00US$5.50US$5.2812
Sep ’24US$6.30
US$12.08
+91.8%
23.5%US$18.00US$8.00US$3.6312
Aug ’24US$8.96
US$14.63
+63.2%
18.8%US$19.00US$10.00US$3.7412
Jul ’24US$9.67
US$14.79
+53.0%
18.3%US$19.00US$10.00US$4.7712
Jun ’24US$8.27
US$14.88
+79.9%
17.7%US$19.00US$10.00US$5.4712
May ’24US$9.60
US$16.73
+74.2%
15.7%US$20.00US$12.00US$5.8411
Apr ’24US$9.84
US$17.40
+76.8%
12.9%US$20.00US$13.00US$7.1910
Mar ’24US$11.29
US$17.27
+53.0%
12.6%US$20.00US$13.00US$6.8911
Feb ’24US$12.81
US$18.60
+45.2%
15.8%US$25.00US$15.00US$5.3110
Jan ’24US$10.27
US$18.60
+81.1%
16.0%US$25.00US$14.00US$5.4610
Dec ’23US$12.94
US$18.60
+43.7%
16.0%US$25.00US$14.00US$4.1610

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 03:45
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brandon OglenskiBarclays
Brandon OglenskiBarclays
Andrew DidoraBofA Global Research