Allegiant Travel Company

NasdaqGS:ALGT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.3b

Allegiant Travel Valuation

Is ALGT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALGT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALGT ($72.7) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($10.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALGT is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALGT?

Key metric: As ALGT is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ALGT. This is calculated by dividing ALGT's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ALGT's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.5x
SalesUS$2.50b
Market CapUS$1.26b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ALGT's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ALGT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
ULCC Frontier Group Holdings
0.3x12.7%US$1.2b
UP Wheels Up Experience
1.7xn/aUS$1.5b
SNCY Sun Country Airlines Holdings
0.7x8.3%US$721.0m
JBLU JetBlue Airways
0.2x5.5%US$2.1b
ALGT Allegiant Travel
0.5x10.5%US$1.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ALGT is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ALGT's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Airlines Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MESA Mesa Air Group
0.07xn/aUS$35.74m
SAVE.Q Spirit Airlines
0.003x2.9%US$16.44m
SOAR Volato Group
0.1xn/aUS$13.88m
TAWN.F Thai Airways International
0.0008xn/aUS$10.91m
ALGT 0.5xIndustry Avg. 0.5xNo. of Companies7PS00.40.81.21.62+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ALGT is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALGT's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALGT PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.5x
Fair PS Ratio0.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ALGT is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALGT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$72.70
US$70.00
-3.7%
19.3%US$90.00US$50.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$63.01
US$59.60
-5.4%
20.9%US$80.00US$45.00n/a10
Oct ’25US$56.41
US$54.50
-3.4%
30.6%US$87.00US$33.00n/a10
Sep ’25US$42.08
US$54.50
+29.5%
30.6%US$87.00US$33.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$49.83
US$57.70
+15.8%
25.3%US$87.00US$39.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$49.46
US$70.60
+42.7%
21.0%US$95.00US$45.00n/a10
Jun ’25US$53.20
US$70.60
+32.7%
21.0%US$95.00US$45.00n/a10
May ’25US$53.68
US$75.10
+39.9%
16.8%US$95.00US$55.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$69.42
US$84.91
+22.3%
13.5%US$100.00US$65.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$71.98
US$86.00
+19.5%
12.9%US$100.00US$65.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$79.92
US$89.09
+11.5%
16.5%US$110.00US$65.00n/a11
Jan ’25US$82.61
US$84.45
+2.2%
17.8%US$110.00US$64.00n/a11
Dec ’24US$71.35
US$87.91
+23.2%
22.7%US$125.00US$64.00n/a11
Nov ’24US$65.94
US$100.64
+52.6%
16.0%US$125.00US$75.00US$63.0111
Oct ’24US$76.86
US$113.91
+48.2%
13.3%US$145.00US$80.00US$56.4111
Sep ’24US$88.95
US$124.55
+40.0%
13.8%US$150.00US$100.00US$42.0811
Aug ’24US$121.53
US$123.45
+1.6%
14.2%US$150.00US$85.00US$49.8311
Jul ’24US$126.28
US$117.82
-6.7%
16.7%US$150.00US$85.00US$49.4611
Jun ’24US$97.25
US$113.09
+16.3%
14.2%US$150.00US$85.00US$53.2011
May ’24US$98.01
US$100.09
+2.1%
14.9%US$126.00US$75.00US$53.6811
Apr ’24US$91.98
US$99.27
+7.9%
14.7%US$126.00US$83.00US$69.4211
Mar ’24US$103.17
US$97.09
-5.9%
15.0%US$126.00US$83.00US$71.9811
Feb ’24US$84.39
US$93.91
+11.3%
15.5%US$120.00US$75.00US$79.9211
Jan ’24US$67.99
US$98.09
+44.3%
18.1%US$130.00US$75.00US$82.6111
Dec ’23US$82.02
US$111.40
+35.8%
23.8%US$175.00US$85.00US$71.3510
Nov ’23US$75.39
US$121.20
+60.8%
24.1%US$190.00US$85.00US$65.9410

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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