Assessing Avis Budget Group (CAR) After Maple Rock’s Exit Despite Improving Operational Performance

Maple Rock Capital Partners has completely exited Avis Budget Group (CAR), unloading its 415,584 shares in the third quarter, even as the rental car operator reported better fleet costs and improved adjusted EBITDA across key regions.

See our latest analysis for Avis Budget Group.

Even with Maple Rock heading for the exit, investor sentiment around Avis Budget Group has been shaped more by price action than headlines. The latest share price is $133.93, and a powerful year to date share price return of 66.50 percent contrasts sharply with a weaker 3 year total shareholder return of negative 26.44 percent. This suggests momentum has picked up recently, even though longer term holders have had a bumpier ride.

If Maple Rock's move has you reassessing your own positioning, this could be a good time to widen the lens and explore auto manufacturers for other ways to play global mobility demand.

With shares up strongly this year but still trading only a touch below analyst targets, investors face a key question: Is Avis Budget now a fully priced travel reopening winner, or is the market underestimating its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 1.3% Undervalued

With Avis Budget Group last closing at $133.93 against a narrative fair value of $135.75, the prevailing storyline leans toward a modest value gap and expectations for profit recovery.

The launch of Avis First, a premium product offering, targets the structural industry shift toward premiumization seen in airlines and hotels, positioning Avis to focus on higher-margin customers and raise average revenue per rental. This differentiation may support revenue growth and net margin expansion over the long term. The recently announced partnership with Waymo (Google's autonomous vehicle division) uses Avis's core competencies in large-scale fleet management, asset deployment, EV infrastructure, and global reach to participate in the autonomous and electric vehicle mobility market. This positions Avis to explore new revenue streams as the addressable mobility market develops.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what powers that price tag? This narrative highlights a potential profit turnaround, rising margins, and a future earnings multiple that remains comparatively restrained. Curious which numbers really move the dial?

Result: Fair Value of $135.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, several things could still derail that story, ranging from slower than expected Avis First adoption to autonomous partnerships underdelivering on revenue and margin upside.

Find out about the key risks to this Avis Budget Group narrative.

Build Your Own Avis Budget Group Narrative

If you see the outlook differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Avis Budget Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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