Is VEON (NASDAQ:VEON) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
August 16, 2021
NasdaqGS:VEON
Source: Shutterstock

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, VEON Ltd. (NASDAQ:VEON) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for VEON

What Is VEON's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that VEON had US$7.75b of debt in March 2021, down from US$8.33b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.36b, its net debt is less, at about US$6.39b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:VEON Debt to Equity History August 16th 2021

How Strong Is VEON's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that VEON had liabilities of US$4.30b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$8.86b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$1.36b in cash and US$696.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$11.1b.

This deficit casts a shadow over the US$2.87b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, VEON would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Even though VEON's debt is only 2.3, its interest cover is really very low at 2.4. This does suggest the company is paying fairly high interest rates. Either way there's no doubt the stock is using meaningful leverage. Unfortunately, VEON's EBIT flopped 13% over the last four quarters. If that sort of decline is not arrested, then the managing its debt will be harder than selling broccoli flavoured ice-cream for a premium. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if VEON can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, VEON recorded free cash flow worth 52% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Mulling over VEON's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that VEON's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. While VEON didn't make a statutory profit in the last year, its positive EBIT suggests that profitability might not be far away. Click here to see if its earnings are heading in the right direction, over the medium term.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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