Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) Faces A Lockup Shock, Is The Stock A Bargain?

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) has become a focus for investors after a turbulent first earnings season, significant AI spending commitments, and its first post IPO lockup expiry, which more than doubled the stock’s public float.

See our latest analysis for Space Exploration Technologies.

Over the past month Space Exploration Technologies has seen its share price return fall 23.11%, capping a year to date share price return decline of 28.60%. This comes even though the 1 day share price return of 6.14% and 7 day share price return of 2.42% suggest some short term momentum as investors reassess heavy AI spending, the Nvidia partnership and the enlarged float after the lockup expiry.

If you are watching how AI infrastructure stories are trading after big news like Space Exploration Technologies' Starmind reveal, it can be useful to compare with other focused opportunities through the 56 AI infrastructure stocks

Space Exploration Technologies now trades around US$114.92, while the average analyst price target is closer to US$233. With the stock down sharply yet still tied to ambitious AI and space plans, the question is where fair value really sits.

Most Popular Narrative: 24,882.6% Overvalued

The most followed narrative pegs Space Exploration Technologies at a fair value of about $0.46 per share, far below the recent $114.92 close. This wide gap rests on treating the business as capital intensive with modest long term margins, rather than a high margin software style story.

SpaceX is one of the most important engineering companies in the world, but from a valuation standpoint, it still behaves like a capital intensive industrial business with modest margins and high execution risk. With a 30% discount rate to reflect the lack of current profitability, the fair value estimate lands at US$0.87 per share in 2026.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why this narrative prices Space Exploration Technologies like an industrial operator, not a tech giant? The story leans on specific revenue paths, thin margins, and a firm profit multiple that may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $0.46 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if Space Exploration Technologies manages to lift margins in Connectivity or turn its AI platform into a cash generator, this industrial-style narrative could be challenged.

Find out about the key risks to this Space Exploration Technologies narrative.

Next Steps

If the mixed sentiment on Space Exploration Technologies leaves you undecided, it may help to review the numbers yourself. You can move quickly while views are still forming by checking the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Space Exploration Technologies?

Do not stop with Space Exploration Technologies. Broaden your watchlist using focused stock ideas so you are ready when the next opportunity lines up with your goals.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning companies that still look attractively valued through the 51 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Strengthen your income stream by reviewing companies that show reliable payouts using the 9 dividend fortresses.
• Prioritise resilience by checking stocks highlighted in the 78 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com