Is Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) Undervalued After Joining The Nasdaq 100?

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) has just been added to the Nasdaq-100 Index, bringing the recently listed stock into a widely tracked benchmark and putting its sharp post-IPO volatility in sharper focus for index investors.

See our latest analysis for Space Exploration Technologies.

For Space Exploration Technologies, the recent Nasdaq-100 inclusion comes after a sharp swing in sentiment, with the stock showing a 1-day share price return of 3.08% but a 30-day share price return down 33.22%. This suggests short term momentum has weakened even as contracts in connectivity and AI keep the long term story in focus.

If you are looking beyond Space Exploration Technologies for other AI driven opportunities tied to infrastructure and compute, this is a useful moment to scan the market using the 54 AI infrastructure stocks

Space Exploration Technologies now trades at a steep discount to the US$240 analyst consensus, even as losses and heavy investment have made many investors cautious. Is this just sentiment overshooting, or is it a fair reset on valuation risk?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.5% Undervalued

With Space Exploration Technologies last closing at $123.54 against a narrative fair value of $135, the current price sits below what the most followed thesis assumes.

Using Simply Wall St Future Multiple Valuator, for the stock to be fairly valued today and be worth the offering price at US$135/share:

• Approx. US$313B revenue in 10 years

• Net profit margin at 40%, net income ~US$125B

• PE multiple in 10 years at 30x (to deserve this multiple they would still grow earnings at around 10% in year 10), future market cap ~US$3.75T

Read the complete narrative.

Those headline numbers are only part of the story. The narrative leans on specific revenue splits, margin gains, and a premium future earnings multiple. Curious how those pieces fit together into that $135 fair value and why each segment of Space Exploration Technologies carries such weight in the model.

Result: Fair Value of $135 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this narrative around Space Exploration Technologies depends heavily on ambitious revenue, margin, and P/E assumptions and could be challenged by execution setbacks or slower progress in space, connectivity, or AI.

Find out about the key risks to this Space Exploration Technologies narrative.

Next Steps

If the split between cautious and optimistic views on Space Exploration Technologies feels sharp, take a closer look at the numbers now and weigh both sides using the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Space Exploration Technologies?

If you want to build a stronger watchlist around Space Exploration Technologies, now is a smart time to scan for other stocks with solid fundamentals and distinct return profiles.

• Spot potential high-upside opportunities early by reviewing the 21 elite penny stocks with strong financials that already show stronger financial foundations than many peers.
• Zero in on quality at a discount by checking the 50 high quality undervalued stocks that combine robust cash flows with healthier balance sheets.
• Prioritize resilience and capital protection by assessing the 81 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on financial strength and volatility controls.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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