Is ASTS Worth a Closer Look After Its 130% Rally and AT&T Deal in 2025?

Are you weighing whether to buy, hold, or sell AST SpaceMobile? You are not alone. With share prices staging a dramatic rally, it is worth a careful look. Over just the past week, the stock jumped 17.8%, while the past month brought an eye-catching 133.6% surge. This continues a standout run, as AST SpaceMobile has soared 342.2% year to date and delivered a stunning 1,299% gain over the past three years.

What is fueling these moves? For one, global excitement over satellite-based connectivity is at a fever pitch, making AST SpaceMobile a magnet for risk-tolerant growth seekers. Regulatory milestones and big-name telecom partnerships have gradually shifted the company’s risk perceptions, drawing in a wider range of investors with an eye to the future of mobile coverage.

Of course, momentum like this draws both fans and skeptics. Is it growing into its valuation, just catching up, or getting ahead of itself? By our value scoring approach, where one point is awarded for each of six checks where a stock appears undervalued, AST SpaceMobile scores a 2. In other words, it is undervalued on two out of six major valuation criteria, suggesting a mix of optimism and lingering caution in the market’s pricing.

Next up, we will break down the major valuation approaches, so you can see how AST SpaceMobile stacks up and why each metric matters. And keep reading, because at the end, we will explore a more nuanced way to judge the company’s value that goes beyond the usual checks.

AST SpaceMobile scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: AST SpaceMobile Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s true value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today’s value, using an appropriate rate. This method captures both near-term analyst estimates and long-term expectations to reflect what the business could be worth now, based on future performance.

For AST SpaceMobile, the starting point is its latest twelve months' Free Cash Flow of minus $483.4 million. Over the next few years, analysts expect continued investment, with cash burn projected through 2027. By 2028, projections turn positive, reaching $241.5 million in Free Cash Flow, then quickly scaling to $766.6 million by 2029. Simply Wall St extrapolates these figures further out, estimating Free Cash Flow could climb to $4.3 billion by 2035, but this longer-term view relies heavily on forecast assumptions beyond the initial five years.

Taking all projections into account, the DCF model calculates AST SpaceMobile’s intrinsic value at $199.82 per share. This places the stock at a steep 52.1% discount to its estimated fair value, indicating the market has not fully priced in its future cash generation potential.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for AST SpaceMobile.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests AST SpaceMobile is undervalued by 52.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: AST SpaceMobile Price vs Book

For many profitable or asset-rich companies, analysts often turn to the Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio to gauge value. This metric compares a company's share price to its book value per share, reflecting what investors are willing to pay for each dollar of net assets. Since book value can offer a solid baseline for companies with tangible assets or those still ramping up profitability, it is a logical valuation yardstick here.

Of course, growth expectations and risk play a big part in what counts as a "normal" P/B ratio. Investors often pay a higher multiple for companies expected to grow faster or with lower risk, while slower-growing or riskier businesses tend to trade closer to their asset value.

Looking at AST SpaceMobile, the company is currently trading at an eye-catching 30.0x P/B ratio, far above both its peer average of 4.9x and the telecom sector average of 1.4x. At first glance, this premium suggests that investors are banking on rapid future growth or breakthrough success. Yet it is worth a closer look using a more tailored metric.

This is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary "Fair Ratio" comes in. Rather than just comparing to the industry or a loose set of peers, the Fair Ratio estimates what a reasonable P/B multiple should be for AST SpaceMobile specifically, factoring in its growth prospects, risks, profit margins, industry, and market cap. This more holistic perspective helps avoid misleading comparisons and anchors valuation to the business’s real outlook.

Weighing all of these factors, AST SpaceMobile’s actual P/B multiple still towers above its Fair Ratio. This mismatch suggests that even allowing for excitement about its potential, the shares are priced quite aggressively relative to their fundamentals.

Result: OVERVALUED

PB ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your AST SpaceMobile Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative goes beyond numbers, allowing you to create or choose a story that reflects your personal perspective on a company, including your assumptions for fair value, future revenue, earnings, and profit margins.

Narratives connect a company’s unique story to its financial future and fair value, helping you bring context and conviction to your investment decisions. On Simply Wall St's Community page, millions of investors use Narratives as an easy, accessible tool to make sense of market moves and decide whether to buy, hold, or sell based on real-time comparisons of Fair Value and current Price.

What makes Narratives especially powerful is that they are updated automatically whenever new developments hit the news or fresh earnings are reported, so your investment perspective adapts as the story evolves. For AST SpaceMobile, you might see one investor forecasting a Fair Value of $35 with cautious revenue assumptions, while another expects $200 based on much more optimistic growth. It all comes down to the Narrative you believe.

Do you think there's more to the story for AST SpaceMobile? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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