Stock Analysis

Optimism around Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) delivering new earnings growth may be shrinking as stock declines 6.4% this past week

NYSE:DELL
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Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. That downside risk was realized by Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 28%. That falls noticeably short of the market decline of around 7.3%. The silver lining (for longer term investors) is that the stock is still 14% higher than it was three years ago. Furthermore, it's down 15% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

View our latest analysis for Dell Technologies

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Unhappily, Dell Technologies had to report a 49% decline in EPS over the last year. This fall in the EPS is significantly worse than the 28% the share price fall. So despite the weak per-share profits, some investors are probably relieved the situation wasn't more difficult.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:DELL Earnings Per Share Growth March 14th 2023

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Dell Technologies' TSR for the last 1 year was -26%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

The last twelve months weren't great for Dell Technologies shares, which performed worse than the market, costing holders 26%, including dividends. Meanwhile, the broader market slid about 7.3%, likely weighing on the stock. Investors are up over three years, booking 32% per year, much better than the more recent returns. The recent sell-off could be an opportunity if the business remains sound, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long-term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Dell Technologies is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About NYSE:DELL

Dell Technologies

Designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and supports various comprehensive and integrated solutions, products, and services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and internationally.

Solid track record and good value.