Viasat (VSAT) Valuation in Focus Following Defense Wins, Space Force Contracts, and ViaSat-3 F2 Launch Momentum

If you have been watching Viasat (VSAT) lately, you know that there is a lot happening beneath the surface. The company just unveiled a series of wins across its Defense and Advanced Technologies unit, not only landing new contracts with the U.S. Space Force but also reporting a jump in revenue and contract awards. At the same time, major deals in its maritime and aviation segments and the upcoming launch of the ViaSat-3 F2 satellite are setting up what could be a pivotal chapter in the company’s growth story. These fresh developments are catching the market’s eye, especially as a vocal investor suggests that Viasat’s defense business alone may be worth even more than the entire company’s current value. Taking a step back, Viasat has undergone a bit of a rollercoaster in the market over the past year. After a challenging stretch, shares have climbed a remarkable 88% in the past 12 months. The stock continues to rebound in 2025, fueled by steady commercial wins and optimism around new technology rollouts. Still, when compared to its five-year performance, there is a sense that recent momentum might just be catching up with pent-up value in the business rather than reflecting pure optimism. So with all these drivers in play, is Viasat trading at a discount to its true worth? Or has the surge already priced in all the growth investors hope for?

Most Popular Narrative: 24% Overvalued

The most popular narrative in the market today suggests that Viasat is trading above its fair value estimate, with a consensus view projecting the stock to be nearly a quarter overvalued compared to underlying earnings growth assumptions.

Expanding secure connectivity and advanced satellite networks positions Viasat for broader market access, higher pricing power, and sustained top-line growth. Strategic integration, operational efficiency, and heightened demand for digital inclusion support improved cash flow, reduced debt, and better earnings quality.

What is behind this attention-grabbing fair value? Analysts are betting on a game-changing financial turnaround, driven by a set of bold forecasts that could put Viasat in a new league. But which future numbers hold the key to justifying this target, and could this scenario reshape how investors value the stock for years to come? The answers may change your view of what is possible for Viasat’s growth story.

Result: Fair Value of $24.29 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing heavy capital expenditures and declining U.S. broadband subscribers could quickly derail the expected growth path that supports the bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Viasat narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Perspective

Looking from a different angle, our DCF model paints a sharply different picture for Viasat. This analysis suggests the shares may actually be undervalued. Does this new calculation upend the prevailing market narrative, or does it simply add another wrinkle?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Viasat to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Viasat Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers on your own, you can build your own view of Viasat’s story in under three minutes with our tools. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Viasat research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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