The Bull Case For Viasat (VSAT) Could Change Following Major U.S. Space Force Satellite Contract Win

• Earlier this month, Viasat announced it had been selected by the U.S. Space Force for a prime contract award under the Protected Tactical SATCOM-Global (PTS-G) program, making it one of five companies tasked with developing a secure, resilient geosynchronous satellite constellation serving government users, with the first launch planned for 2028.
• This selection highlights Viasat's growing prominence as a potential end-to-end satellite manufacturer for critical defense communications, underscoring its role in advancing secure and resilient satellite communications for U.S. military missions.
• We'll explore how being chosen for the PTS-G satellite program could influence Viasat's positioning in the defense communications market.

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Viasat Investment Narrative Recap

Owning Viasat stock means believing the company can capitalize on rising demand for secure, resilient satellite communications despite heavy competition and ongoing pressures from capital expenditures. The recent U.S. Space Force contract highlights progress in its Defense segment, but the contract's initial phase does not remove the risks related to high leverage and delayed cash flow improvement, which remain the most important near-term considerations for investors.

Another development relevant to this military win is Viasat's upcoming launch of the ViaSat-3 Flight 2 satellite. Set for October 2025, this launch is expected to boost overall bandwidth and coverage, supporting both government and commercial services, and may reinforce Viasat's competitive positioning as the company pursues new government contracts.

By contrast, investors should recognize that while contract wins are critical, elevated capital expenses and persistent net losses could continue to weigh on free cash flow and earnings in the near future, so...

Read the full narrative on Viasat (it's free!)

Viasat's projections anticipate $5.0 billion in revenue and $534.2 million in earnings by 2028. This requires a 2.9% annual revenue growth rate and an earnings increase of $1.13 billion from current earnings of -$598.5 million.

Uncover how Viasat's forecasts yield a $26.14 fair value, a 20% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Ten fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from as low as US$8.40 to as high as US$115.49. With optimism about defense growth, participants should also consider how ongoing high capital requirements might impact future returns and risk.

Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Viasat - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Viasat Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Viasat research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Viasat research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Viasat's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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