While Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Super Micro Computer’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What's the opportunity in Super Micro Computer?
According to my valuation model, Super Micro Computer seems to be fairly priced at around 14.96% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Super Micro Computer today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $38.43, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Super Micro Computer’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
Can we expect growth from Super Micro Computer?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 48% over the next year, the near-term future seems bright for Super Micro Computer. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? SMCI’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on SMCI, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
If you'd like to know more about Super Micro Computer as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Be aware that Super Micro Computer is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis and 1 of those is a bit concerning...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.