Itron (ITRI): Valuation Check After Winning Tucson’s 250,000‑Device Smart Water Infrastructure Contract

Itron (ITRI) just landed a multi year deal with Tucson Water to roll out its AMI Essentials platform, a 250,000 device smart metering project that tightens water management and modernizes utility operations.

See our latest analysis for Itron.

The Tucson contract lands at a time when Itron’s 1 year total shareholder return of negative 14 percent contrasts sharply with an 83.6 percent 3 year total shareholder return, suggesting longer term momentum remains intact even as recent share price returns have cooled.

If this kind of smart infrastructure story interests you, it might be worth exploring other technology names through high growth tech and AI stocks to see what else is quietly setting up for future growth.

With shares down over the past year but trading at a steep discount to analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates, is Itron an overlooked smart infrastructure play, or is the market already baking in years of growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 29.9% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value near 140 dollars against Itron’s 98.29 dollar last close, the valuation case leans heavily on long duration utility IoT demand.

Expected acceleration in global demand for smart grid infrastructure and advanced metering solutions driven by government decarbonization mandates, increasing electrification, and urbanization supports a long run, expanding addressable market for Itron, providing a clear path to sustained top line revenue growth. Ongoing industry wide digitalization and increased adoption of IoT by utilities are driving higher uptake of Itron's Outcomes (software and analytics) offerings, which are higher margin and boost recurring revenue, supporting continued net margin and earnings expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how steady grid spending, rising software mix, and a richer profit margin profile all feed into that valuation gap? The full narrative spells out the growth runway, the earnings bridge, and the future multiple that has to hold for this price tag to make sense.

Result: Fair Value of $140.20 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower regulatory approvals and softer Outcomes software growth could delay project revenue, pressure margins, and challenge the case for sustained multiple expansion.

Find out about the key risks to this Itron narrative.

Build Your Own Itron Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a fresh narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Itron research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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