Canaan (NasdaqGM:CAN) Valuation in Focus After Securing Landmark 50,000-Unit U.S. Bitcoin Miner Order

Canaan (NasdaqGM:CAN) is seeing renewed attention after revealing its largest purchase order in three years. A U.S.-based bitcoin miner is set to acquire over 50,000 Avalon A15 Pro units. The agreement highlights growing demand for advanced mining technology and validates Canaan’s recent strategic moves.

See our latest analysis for Canaan.

The buzz from Canaan’s massive 50,000-unit order landed right after its renewable-powered Texas mining expansion with Soluna, underscoring real momentum in the business. Investors responded quickly. While the 1-year total shareholder return sits just above break-even at 0.25%, the stock has steadily gained over the past month, hinting at a shift in sentiment and renewed optimism for the company’s long-term prospects.

If Canaan's turnaround story has you watching the tech mining space, it might be the perfect time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares up sharply on the recent news, the key question now is whether investors are still undervaluing Canaan’s turnaround story, or if the market is already pricing in much of the projected growth from these big orders.

Most Popular Narrative: 46% Undervalued

With Canaan closing yesterday at $1.31 and the narrative projecting a fair value of $2.43, the most-followed outlook sees significant potential upside. This valuation stands out sharply from recent trading levels, hinting that some bullish drivers may not yet be fully recognized by the market.

Broadening geographic reach and manufacturing sites reduces geopolitical risk while positioning for stable growth in regions with supportive regulations and energy advantages. Advancing ASICs, service offerings, and AI-related initiatives enhances product differentiation, revenue diversification, and margin resilience amid evolving mining and computing markets.

Read the complete narrative.

Just what assumptions about revenue surges and profit margin swings are powering this ambitious price target? The narrative's boldest projections hang on a handful of aggressive financial leaps. Can Canaan really deliver the growth and margin expansion that this outlook demands? The real story is in the numbers. Dive deeper to see what could drive such a large gap between consensus value and current price.

Result: Fair Value of $2.43 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, significant risks remain, including volatility in Bitcoin prices and heightened competition. Both of these factors could challenge Canaan’s optimistic growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Canaan narrative.

Another View: Preferred Multiple Signals Overvaluation

While the narrative points to Canaan being undervalued, another lens says the market may be getting ahead of itself. Canaan’s price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.8x, well above its peer average of 0.5x and even higher than its fair ratio of 1.6x. This premium pricing suggests investors are betting on a strong turnaround that is not guaranteed. Are the risks being overlooked, or is the company’s growth story just that compelling?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Canaan Narrative

If you have a different take or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can quickly craft a personal view from scratch in just minutes with Do it your way

A great starting point for your Canaan research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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