Assessing Apple (AAPL) Valuation After Recent 3-Month Outperformance

Why Apple Stock Is Back in Focus

Apple (AAPL) has quietly outpaced the broader market over the past 3 months, climbing about 19%, and that steady move higher is drawing fresh attention from investors comparing today’s price to longer term returns.

See our latest analysis for Apple.

After a choppy year, Apple’s recent 30 day share price return of 5.65%, on top of a 16.57% year to date share price gain and a 17.50% one year total shareholder return, suggests bullish momentum is rebuilding as investors lean into its services growth and next hardware cycle.

If Apple’s move has you thinking more broadly about tech leaders, this could be a good moment to explore other high growth tech and AI stocks that are starting to build similar momentum.

Yet with Apple now trading just above its average analyst price target and showing only a slight premium to many valuation models, investors must ask: is this a timely entry point, or is future growth already fully priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued

With Apple’s last close near $284 and the most followed fair value closer to $282, the narrative sees only a slight premium baked into today’s price.

Significant investment in expanding Apple's high margin Services ecosystem (App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, TV+, financial services) is generating accelerating double digit revenue growth and record paid subscriptions, contributing to higher and more stable net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of growth engine justifies this near full valuation, from margins to earnings power and future multiples, without guessing the numbers yourself?

Result: Fair Value of $281.75 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this optimistic setup still faces pressure from tighter App Store regulation and potential hardware saturation, which could cap margins and dampen upgrade-driven growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Apple narrative.

Build Your Own Apple Narrative

If you see Apple’s story differently, or simply want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a complete narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Apple research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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