Apple (AAPL) Valuation Check as AI Push, Google Deal Prospects and iPhone 17 Cycle Lift Expectations

Apple (AAPL) is leaning hard into its next act, with a reshuffled AI leadership team, a potential Google partnership on deck for 2026, and iPhone 17 demand helping the stock recover after a choppy start.

See our latest analysis for Apple.

The share price has climbed to $278.03 with a strong 90 day share price return of 18.78%, and a hefty five year total shareholder return of 121.92% signals that momentum around Apple’s AI reset and iPhone 17 cycle is still building rather than fading.

If Apple’s resurgence has you thinking bigger about tech, this could be a good moment to explore other potential winners through high growth tech and AI stocks.

With the stock hovering near record highs and analysts divided between calling for further upside and cautioning about rich multiples, the real question now is simple: is Apple still a buy here, or has the market already priced in its next wave of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 1.3% Undervalued

Compared with Apple’s last close at $278.03, the most followed narrative pegs fair value slightly higher, implying only a modest upside from here.

Significant investment in expanding Apple's high margin Services ecosystem (App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, TV+, financial services) is generating accelerating double digit revenue growth and record paid subscriptions, contributing to higher and more stable net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of future revenue mix and earnings power that services engine is pointing to, and how it feeds into a premium multiple? The core assumptions here might surprise you. They blend steady hardware demand with quietly compounding margins in a way the headline share price alone does not reveal.

Result: Fair Value of $281.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that story can quickly change if tariff shocks or harsher App Store rulings squeeze margins and challenge confidence in Apple’s premium valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Apple narrative.

Another View: Rich Multiples Signal Little Margin for Error

While the most popular narrative calls Apple modestly undervalued, a simple price to earnings check paints a tighter picture. At 36.7 times earnings, Apple trades richer than both the global tech sector at 22.7 times and its peer average at 33.5 times, even though our fair ratio suggests the market could justify about 38.3 times.

That leaves only a slim valuation cushion, raising a practical question for investors: are you being paid enough for the risk that growth or margins fall even slightly short of the current story?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Apple Narrative

If you see Apple’s story differently or want to test your own thesis against the numbers, build a custom narrative in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Apple research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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