Do Higher EPS Estimates Really Clarify Unity (U)’s Dual Create-and-Grow Platform Strategy?

  • In recent days, Unity Software has attracted attention as analysts projected strong earnings growth, including an expected EPS of $0.20 for the current quarter and higher revenue estimates for the coming years.
  • Investors are also focusing on Unity’s dual Create and Grow Solutions, which position the platform at the intersection of real-time content creation and monetization.
  • Next, we’ll examine how expectations of stronger earnings could shape Unity Software’s investment narrative for long-term-oriented investors.

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What Is Unity Software's Investment Narrative?

To own Unity, you have to buy into the idea that its Create and Grow Solutions can become core infrastructure for real-time 3D content and monetization across gaming, AI-driven experiences and industrial uses. The recent sector sell-off on AI cost worries, which pulled Unity’s share price sharply lower, looks more sentiment driven than specific to its fundamentals, especially with analysts still expecting EPS of US$0.20 this quarter and ongoing revenue growth. Near term, key catalysts remain evidence of progress toward profitability, execution on partnerships like Coda, BMW and the Epic/Fortnite integration, and how well the newer management team delivers on this pipeline. The biggest risks center on Unity’s continued losses, relatively high price to sales and whether newer leadership can execute consistently in a volatile software market.

But there is one execution risk in particular that investors should be watching closely. Despite retreating, Unity Software's shares might still be trading 48% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.

Exploring Other Perspectives

U 1-Year Stock Price Chart
U 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$24 to just over US$56 per share, underscoring how far apart individual views can be. Set against Unity’s recent volatility and still-unproven path to sustainable profits, that spread highlights why many market participants are weighing the same catalysts and risks very differently, and why it can be useful to consider several of these perspectives side by side.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Unity Software - why the stock might be worth 17% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Unity Software Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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About NYSE:U

Unity Software

Operates a platform to create and grow games and interactive experiences for mobile phones, PCs, consoles, and extended reality devices in the United States, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Canada, and Latin America.

Excellent balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.

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MPAA often has inventory and core-related timing issues. While this quarter’s problems may ease, similar issues have recurred historically and can persist for several quarters. It's not a one-off, it's a structural part of their business. Core returns are simply estimates: How many customers will actually return the original part; how quickly they'll do so; how many are useable; what they're worth, etc. MPAA predicts X sales in a quarter and Y core returns and its reserves, inventory values, etc. are based on that. If they expect a 90% core return rate and only 80% come back it doesn't change cash but they have to write down inventory and increase cost of goods sold which impacts EPS. They've also cited inventory buildup at key customers multiple times in the past. The assumption the latest backlog will all shift into future quarters this year with no impact on pricing, etc. seems more like wishful thinking. Retailer X was slated to buy $10m in parts this quarter but finds they have a lot more inventory on hand than they anticipated so they pushed the order. Realistically there are likely to be SKU cuts, reduction in safety stock on others, etc. Assuming that all $10m will come in this year plus the regular replenishment seems pretty unrealistic. MPAA also has a shaky track record when it comes to new lines and the supposed impact on business. If you look at the EV testing solutions hype back around 2020 that was supposed to diversify them beyond traditional reman and be a higher margin business that would grow with EV adoption. But it has never turned into a material contributor. The debt reduction and stock buy backs are meaningful but IMHO this narrative takes a very optimistic view of things.

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