D Wave Quantum (QBTS) Could Be 51% Below Fair Value As NSF Grant Fuels Debate

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is back in focus after the U.S. National Science Foundation awarded a US$1,566,250 grant to its Quantum Circuits subsidiary under the ERASE project for fault-tolerant quantum computing.

See our latest analysis for D-Wave Quantum.

Even with the new ERASE grant and recent U.S. government support, D-Wave Quantum’s share price has pulled back, with the 7-day share price return down 10.83% and the 30-day share price return down 13.59%. However, the 90-day share price return is up 40.98% and the 1-year total shareholder return is 35.65%, indicating strong but volatile momentum over a longer track record of very large multi year total shareholder returns.

If you are interested in how quantum computing sentiment is spreading across the market, this is a good moment to see what else is moving in 26 quantum computing stocks

After a sharp pullback following the grant headlines, D-Wave Quantum sits between recent traders taking profits and longer term holders eyeing the bigger story. Does it make more sense to buy this volatility now, or wait for a cheaper entry?

Most Popular Narrative: 50.6% Undervalued

According to the most followed D-Wave Quantum narrative, the fair value sits at $40.65 per share versus a last close of $20.09. This points to a wide gap between narrative expectations and the current market price.

The most critical underlying factor in D-Wave’s 2026 narrative is its unprecedented liquidity. Following the financial restructuring associated with the QCi merger, D-Wave enters 2026 with its largest cash-on-hand position in company history.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue trajectory and margin profile has been baked into that valuation gap? The narrative leans heavily on rapid bookings growth, scaling enterprise contracts and a much stronger balance sheet to justify its fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $40.65 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this D-Wave Quantum narrative can be knocked off course if bookings growth stalls, or if the QCi integration and ERASE project timelines slip materially.

Find out about the key risks to this D-Wave Quantum narrative.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern around D-Wave Quantum feels familiar, now is the time to review the numbers yourself, weigh both sides carefully and see how the story looks through your own lens with the 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more ideas beyond D-Wave Quantum?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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