Ping Identity Holding Corp. (NYSE:PING) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

There's been a major selloff in Ping Identity Holding Corp. (NYSE:PING) shares in the week since it released its annual report, with the stock down 35% to US$23.43. Revenues of US$244m came in a modest 2.2% below forecasts. Statutory losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share loss of US$0.15 coming in a substantial 32% smaller than what the analysts had expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ping Identity Holding

After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Ping Identity Holding are now predicting revenues of US$260.8m in 2021. If met, this would reflect a modest 7.1% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.36 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$288.9m and US$0.25 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a very substantial increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$33.82, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ping Identity Holding at US$40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$25.50. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Ping Identity Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 7.1% increase next year well below the historical 12%p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ping Identity Holding is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Ping Identity Holding. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$33.82, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ping Identity Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Ping Identity Holding analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Ping Identity Holding is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...

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