Stock Analysis

Can Gartner's (IT) Expanded Buyback and AI Insights Shape Its Competitive Edge in a Shifting Market?

  • Earlier this week, Gartner expanded its share buyback authorization by an additional US$1 billion and shared new analysis forecasting a rapid consolidation in the agentic AI market as supply outpaces demand, with capital-rich incumbents expected to lead acquisitions of specialized AI firms.
  • This development highlights Gartner's influence in shaping technology market conversations and reflects management's effort to reinforce shareholder value amid industry change and macroeconomic uncertainty.
  • We'll explore how Gartner's expanded capital return program and thought leadership on AI market consolidation could impact its long-term investment outlook.

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Gartner Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Gartner shareholder today, you need to believe that enterprise adoption of AI, digital transformation, and continued demand for trusted tech research will keep driving growth, even as generative AI tools and cost constraints pressure traditional subscription models. The latest US$1 billion buyback shows management’s focus on capital returns, but does not directly offset the key short-term risk: potential subscription revenue deceleration if clients shift spend to alternative research or delay renewals. Its impact on the company’s big picture is largely incremental.

Among recent announcements, Gartner’s ongoing expansion of its share buyback authorization stands out. This program is closely tied to investor confidence in Gartner’s ability to generate free cash flow amidst a potential wave of AI-driven market consolidation and evolving client needs. But with macro and competitive pressures mounting, investors should also stay aware of...

Read the full narrative on Gartner (it's free!)

Gartner's outlook projects $7.4 billion in revenue and $821.8 million in earnings by 2028. This assumes annual revenue growth of 4.7% but a decline in earnings of $478.2 million from the current $1.3 billion.

Uncover how Gartner's forecasts yield a $300.60 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

IT Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025
IT Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025

Simply Wall St Community members have set fair value estimates for Gartner stock ranging from US$223.67 to US$300.60, reflecting a wide spread across just two viewpoints. While opinions differ, pressure from emerging AI tools and client cost cutting could become more important for Gartner’s future performance; consider these varied perspectives as you weigh your own outlook.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Gartner - why the stock might be worth as much as 26% more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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