Samsara (IOT): Assessing Valuation After Consistent Earnings Beats and Expanding AI-Driven Growth Targets

Samsara (IOT) is back in focus after stringing together more than seven quarters of earnings beats, pairing that track record with ambitious Q3 2026 growth targets and steadily improving operating margins.

See our latest analysis for Samsara.

The latest earnings beat has not fully translated into a strong near term move, with a 30 day share price return of minus 5.45 percent and a year to date share price return of minus 13.66 percent. However, the three year total shareholder return of 225.45 percent suggests the longer term growth story is still intact and that momentum is pausing rather than breaking.

If Samsara's trajectory has you thinking more broadly about connected operations and automation, this could be a smart moment to hunt for other high growth tech and AI stocks that are building similar long term themes into their growth stories.

With growth still brisk but the share price cooling and analysts’ targets implying meaningful upside, is Samsara quietly slipping into undervalued territory, or is the market already baking in its next leg of expansion?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 21.2% Undervalued

With Samsara closing at $37.98 against a narrative fair value of $48.20, the most followed storyline sees meaningful upside anchored in long run growth.

Samsara is experiencing strong growth in annual recurring revenue (ARR), evidenced by a 32% year over year increase. This growth is primarily driven by their success in landing large enterprise customers, indicating future revenue expansion opportunities with existing clients. Impact: Revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how that growth pace, rising margins and share count expansion all combine into one aggressive future earnings multiple and discount rate story? Unpack the full narrative to see which bold revenue and profitability assumptions are doing the heavy lifting behind this upside view.

Result: Fair Value of $48.20 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, long enterprise sales cycles and uncertainty around monetizing AI products could slow ARR growth and challenge the upbeat, long-term valuation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Samsara narrative.

Another Lens on Value

While the narrative fair value points to upside, Samsara’s price to sales ratio of 15.3 times is far richer than both US software peers at 4.7 times and an estimated fair ratio of 10.1 times. This raises the risk that any growth wobble could trigger a sharp de rating.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Samsara Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Samsara research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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