HubSpot (HUBS): Revisiting Valuation Ahead of Q3 2025 Earnings and the AI Opportunity Debate

HubSpot will release its Q3 2025 earnings after the bell on Wednesday, drawing extra attention from investors as opinions remain split over its ability to harness AI opportunities in contrast to new challenges from competitors.

See our latest analysis for HubSpot.

HubSpot’s share price has seen significant swings recently, reflecting a year marked by leadership changes, a called-off Google acquisition, and new competition from OpenAI in SaaS. After peaking earlier in the year, the stock is currently trading at $471.99, putting its year-to-date share price return at minus 32.3%. While short-term volatility has been pronounced, long-term believers have still enjoyed a 72% total shareholder return over three years. This shows both resilience and room for renewed momentum as market sentiment digests the latest strategic moves and AI initiatives.

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With a valuation still below most analyst targets and a proven record of beating expectations, investors now face a key question: Is HubSpot trading at a discount that offers upside, or has the market already accounted for all its future gains?

Most Popular Narrative: 31% Undervalued

HubSpot's narrative fair value sits at $683.57, a notable premium above the last close of $471.99. This highlights a gap between market pessimism and narrative optimism and sets the stage for a closer look at the drivers that shape this positive outlook.

Ongoing movement upmarket into larger enterprise customers, combined with a seat-based pricing model and cross-sell of premium platform capabilities (Core Seat, Smart CRM), is leading to larger deals and higher gross margins. This should boost earnings power as operating leverage increases.

Read the complete narrative.

What hidden levers are raising expectations so dramatically? The narrative hinges on ambitious assumptions: surging revenue, sustained margin expansion, and a bold profit trajectory that breaks from past trends. Curious which future milestones must be hit to justify that high target? Only a full read reveals the numbers that could propel or derail the momentum.

Result: Fair Value of $683.57 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, major risks remain, such as stronger AI competition and potential challenges with international expansion. Either of these could meaningfully unsettle HubSpot’s bullish story.

Find out about the key risks to this HubSpot narrative.

Build Your Own HubSpot Narrative

Prefer your own deep dive over consensus takes? You can analyze the numbers and shape your own story in just minutes, so why not Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding HubSpot.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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