Stock Analysis

Is 8x8, Inc. (NYSE:EGHT) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

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NasdaqGS:EGHT
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In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of 8x8, Inc. (NYSE:EGHT) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for 8x8

The method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Levered FCF ($, Millions) -US$38.6m -US$7.45m US$26.7m US$44.2m US$64.7m US$86.0m US$106.4m US$124.7m US$140.4m US$153.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x4 Analyst x3 Est @ 65.31% Est @ 46.32% Est @ 33.02% Est @ 23.71% Est @ 17.19% Est @ 12.63% Est @ 9.44%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7% -US$36.2 -US$6.5 US$22.0 US$34.1 US$46.7 US$58.2 US$67.5 US$74.2 US$78.3 US$80.3

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$418m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$154m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (6.7%– 2.0%) = US$3.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.3b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= US$1.7b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$24.2, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
NYSE:EGHT Discounted Cash Flow May 21st 2021

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at 8x8 as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For 8x8, we've put together three essential elements you should look at:

  1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for 8x8 you should know about.
  2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for EGHT's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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About NasdaqGS:EGHT

8x8

8x8, Inc. provides voice, video, chat, contact center, and enterprise-class application programmable interface (API) Software-as-a-Service solutions for small and mid-size businesses, mid-market and larger enterprises, government agencies, and other organizations worldwide.

Undervalued with mediocre balance sheet.