Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Reassessing Valuation After a Sharp Multi‑Month Share Price Pullback

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) has quietly slipped about 15% over the past month and roughly 34% in the past 3 months, even as revenue and net income growth remain firmly positive.

See our latest analysis for Circle Internet Group.

Zooming out, that 30 day and 90 day slide in the share price return sits against a still positive year to date share price return of 6.2%, suggesting momentum has cooled but growth expectations have not disappeared at $88.41.

If Circle’s recent pullback has you rethinking your exposure to digital finance, it could be a good moment to explore high growth tech and AI stocks that are shaping the next leg of market growth.

With Circle delivering strong top line growth but still reporting losses, and the stock now trading well below analyst targets, is this pullback an early entry point or simply the market correctly pricing future risks and rewards?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 27.6% Undervalued

According to BlackGoat, Circle’s current share price of $88.41 sits well below their narrative fair value estimate of $122.10, framing the stock as materially mispriced despite recent volatility.

At the time of writing, Circle (CRCL) trades at $241 per share. Based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with the following assumptions:

• Revenue growth of 20% per year for the next five years

• Net margins reaching 18% by year five

• A 10% discount rate, I estimate a fair value of $326 per share.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what kind of revenue runway and margin expansion could justify that gap, and how fast profits must scale to get there? Dive into the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $122.10 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that bullish narrative could unravel if interest rates fall faster than expected or if Tether continues using its regulatory edge to capture market share.

Find out about the key risks to this Circle Internet Group narrative.

Build Your Own Circle Internet Group Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own research, you can build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Circle Internet Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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