Tenable Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:TENB) Just Reported Earnings, And Analysts Cut Their Target Price

Tenable Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:TENB) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.0% to US$30.74 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$239m beat expectations by a respectable 2.2%, although statutory losses per share increased. Tenable Holdings lost US$0.19, which was 46% more than what the analysts had included in their models. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tenable Holdings' 22 analysts is for revenues of US$976.8m in 2025. This would reflect a modest 5.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 12% from last year to US$0.33. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$979.8m and losses of US$0.082 per share in 2025. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

Check out our latest analysis for Tenable Holdings

The consensus price target fell 17% to US$37.80per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Tenable Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$48.00 and the most bearish at US$28.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Tenable Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Tenable Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Tenable Holdings. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Tenable Holdings' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Tenable Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tenable Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Tenable Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.