Progress Software (PRGS): Gauging Valuation After MarkLogic Server 12 Showcases AI Innovation at Ai4 2025

Progress Software (PRGS) made waves at Ai4 2025 with the launch of MarkLogic Server 12, highlighting its commitment to driving enterprise AI transformation. The announcement was not just about another software update; it was a showcase of cutting-edge semantic search and Retrieval-Augmented Generation features that are already helping organizations achieve more accurate results in less time. Customer stories have emerged from industries ranging from global pharmaceuticals to financial services, each citing notable gains in AI accuracy and efficiency. This event has prompted some investors to consider whether there is renewed energy behind the stock.

This strategic move into enterprise AI comes at a time of shifting market sentiment for Progress Software. While the company’s product innovation has been steady, the stock price reflects a different narrative: shares have declined 19% over the past year, with momentum continuing to wane after a challenging stretch in the past 3 months. Despite these declines, Progress Software has reported periods of growth in both revenue and net income annually, even as investors weigh the risks associated with its significant debt load and an evolving technology landscape.

With MarkLogic Server 12 now available and AI infrastructure in the spotlight, some are asking if Progress Software is an undervalued opportunity in the next era of enterprise data or if the market has already accounted for all potential upside.

Most Popular Narrative: 33.3% Undervalued

According to community narrative, Progress Software is considered undervalued, with analysts projecting substantial upside from current levels based on multiple catalysts and forward assumptions.

The successful integration of ShareFile has significantly boosted ARR, revenue, and expense savings. This may point to strong future revenue growth and improved net margins due to operational efficiencies. The strategic focus on SaaS acquisitions, exemplified by ShareFile, enables Progress Software to potentially increase recurring revenue, which may contribute to greater revenue predictability and stability over time.

Curious about the bold expectations fueling this bullish projection? This story involves more than steady innovation; it is also about a future outlined by ambitious profit margins and a multiple typically seen in high-growth companies. Which fundamental driver plays the most significant role in this valuation? Discover what leads analysts to express such confidence in this upside forecast.

Result: Fair Value of $70.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if integration costs escalate or international markets face new headwinds, Progress Software’s margin and revenue forecasts could quickly fall short.

Find out about the key risks to this Progress Software narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model

Looking beyond analyst targets, the SWS DCF model also points to undervaluation for Progress Software. This method uses projected cash flows to assess value and adds a different lens to the story. Could this approach help clarify whether the market is missing something?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Progress Software for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Progress Software Narrative

If you have a different viewpoint or want to investigate the numbers for yourself, you can quickly shape your own perspective in just a few minutes. do it your way.

A great starting point for your Progress Software research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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